Hasn’t that always been the stated policy of both the US and Taiwan itself? Pretty sure TSMC has a kill switch built in.
Yeah TSMC and ASML have both said they’ll destroy their infrastructure if necessary.
To be honest you wouldn’t need to blow much up. ASML have staff on site at part of their support contracts for the lithography kit. I doubt they will hang around if China occupied Taiwan and I suspect license keys would quickly expire. The jobs at TSMC are highly skilled so you won’t just be dropping in mainland staff to replace anyone who fled or got killed during the invasion. Even if they get the plant limping along the yields are likely to drop and there would likely be no Western customers for an appropriated fab plant.
In short there are lots reasons invading a country to seize the means silicon wafer production is not likely going to work. I also doubt China see manufacturing as worthwhile spoils of war, a decision to invade is more likely going to be driven by ideological motives.
a decision to invade is more likely going to be driven by ideological motives.
This is spot on. I’ve spent a decent bit of time in China for work and became good friends with one lad there. Over more than a few beers one night Taiwan came up and we had a friendly bet about whether China would invade within 5 years (this was just before COVID so I’ve won and free beers are coming my way).
Anyway long story short, his view was roughly: that’s China and you bet your bollix we’re going to take it by force.
I’d bet more beers his view is a majority but it’s hard to tell because Chinese folks do not like discussing politics in general.
If that’s the chip builder, yes they have one.
Destroying TSMC when China, Korea, Japan, and the US are rapidly approaching parity would seem to only hurt Taiwan in the long run.
Their strategic value to the US plummets without it, while China continues to see them as an existential threat by proximity (in the same way the US has seen Cuba since the Missile Crisis).
Parity in what way? Doesn’t TSMC create basically everything for everyone (Mac, Nvidia, AMD… oh yeah Intel)? Do you think Intel could fill that gap? …like eventually or something?
Doesn’t TSMC create basically everything for everyone
Apple and Nvidia rely on TMSC
Samsung and Intel have their own Foundries and compete in western markets against TMSC, but lack the successful output which drives up the cost per unit of their chipsets.
China has its own semiconductor industry, rapidly closing the gap with the Western firms, with SMIC being the leader of the pack, capable of producing chips at the 7-5nm scale, but at a relatively high loss ratio compared to TSCM. This is offset by state subsidies and has diminished considerably as engineers have refined their processes.
India also is currently developing local fabricators as well, with at least two major fabricators in production and more planned.
Do you think Intel could fill that gap? …like eventually or something?
Intel has been so fixated on maximizing profits that they’ve fallen behind on high end processors.
That said, TMSC has a newly developed foundry in Arizona that has the potential to make the Taiwanese facility redundant.
Samsung is also highly competitive. And of course, if India can get their facilities off the ground, that could be a huge manufacturing base globally.
Whether any of the other BRICS get into the game (both Brazil and South Africa have nascent industries with small export markets) remains to be seen.
Oh ok, only Apple and Nvidia. lol. jk
Seriously though, you’re clearly familiar with the semiconductor industry and yet you believe losing TSMC would only hurt Taiwan?
I’m likely less informed, but I’m inclined to think prices would skyrocket overnight and any innovation/R&D at competing companies would probably stall/be scrapped while companies simply try to match what TSMC is currently capable of producing. Personally, I’d immediately run out to buy the most expensive graphics card I could afford.
I mean, I know Intel likely isn’t going to compete with anyone without some extreme government funding/support - they’re currently struggling to get funding they were promised like 3 years ago.
Oh ok, only Apple and Nvidia. lol. jk
TSMC is an $800B company for a reason. But they aren’t irreplaceable, just convenient relative to where Apple/Nvidia do the bulk of their manufacturing (in and around Hong Kong and Shenzhen).
you believe losing TSMC would only hurt Taiwan?
As a domestic policy, Taiwan needs TSMC more than the US, because Apple/Nvidia can always pivot to another semiconductor manufacturer but Taiwan can’t just wave a magic wand and regain a once-in-a-century fluke of economic prosperity. If you’re really worried about a Chinese invasion, why would you obliterate the breadbasket of the nationalist base of the Taiwanese workforce? It would be like the Saudi monarchy threatening to blow up the Kaaba. Literally the reason you have a base of power at all is this enormous socio-economic touchstone that your loyal professionals control.
Personally, I’d immediately run out to buy the most expensive graphics card I could afford.
You’d be overpaying into a market everyone was panic-buying into at that moment. Far better off to scope up as much SMIC stock as you could afford, as that’s who will be producing Apple/Nvidia’s chipsets into the foreseeable future.
Not TSMC as a company, but TSMC is building fabs outside Taiwan, which would not be destroyed.
Surely TSMC is equally prepared to destroy the fabs in AZ as they are the ones in China. Not sure how successful they could be, but my understanding was they’ve built kill-switches or whatever. It would seem dumb not to, at this point.
Also, I don’t believe you can make a fab work by just stealing it. It’s not like it’s a toaster. lol
No, but it is hard to justify destroying fab in AZ because Taiwan was invaded. And if fab in AZ keeps working, US is fine even if Taiwan is occupied. Hence removing a reason to support Taiwan.
“I we can’t have it, no one can!!”
Yes, because if “no one can”, than that not only removes a reward from China for invading, it also adds a serious negative to China since its tech relies on TSMC and provides incentive for other countries to defend Taiwan.
“If we can’t have it, no one can!!” is the best stance to prevent a war in the first place.
Infants
https://lemmy.world/comment/14169060
You may want to make sure you know what you are talking about before calling others names.
China already started their own chip fabs smic
Which is still like three years behind the yields that TSMC achieves. If they thought they could take TSMC fabs with little effort and without consequence, they would. A killswitch negates their benefit in trying to take it, as another commenter said, preventing war.
