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Cake day: June 14th, 2023

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  • Which one of these two do we think is going to run out first?

    Setting aside that this is largely wartime propaganda horseshit - both militaries are relying on conscripts and mercenaries, both are heavily invested in cheap long-range drone artillery, both are saturated in “Victory is just around the corner” propaganda which has degraded support for their civilian leadership - Russia has 5x the population of Ukraine. If this really is just a Bodies-In-Spaces conflict, the Russians can drown Ukraine in their own blood over a long enough timeline. Ukrainians still need someone to fire those bombs and bullets, ideally before Kiev looks like Tehran.

    But then nobody is “winning” this war in a material sense. Putin is shedding what political allies he has as the war drags on - Romania, Hungary, Turkiye, Syria. Zelensky is fully fucked the next time Ukrainians bother to have a domestic vote. Both of their economies have tanked, with further economic pressures coming from the conflict with Iran and the climate change threat.

    The issue isn’t whether one runs out first. It’s how long the political leadership can drag this forward before someone pops them and brokers a settlement that ends the bleeding. Netanyahu is in a similar position in Israel, with endless war being the only excuse he has to stay in office. And domestic revolt might be what brings all these governments down long before the actual wars are ended.






  • Spot price of oil goes up, domestic producers get richer.

    On the flip side, we’re also seeing a surge in mass transit use and big cuts in the number of flights planed for the rest of the year. Wouldn’t be surprised if there was a blitz of new alt-energy construction and surge in sales of EVs in the next few years, either. Not unlike after the Bush-Era $6/gal gas spike during the Iraq War.

    Trump’s crusade for $500/bbl gas is doing more to de-carbonize the economy than anything Biden or Obama tried.

    Pressure is growing for windfall taxes on the war profits of oil and gas companies, with the European Commission considering a request from the finance ministers of Germany, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Austria to “send a clear message that those who profit from the consequences of war must do their part to ease the burden on the general public”.

    Has this ever actually been implemented? I see “windfall taxes” legislation floated every couple of years, when price gouging goes to 11. I never see anyone ballsy enough to implement it.





  • Nobody gets fed more conservative propaganda than America

    I don’t know how you measure that, per say, but it’s not an issue of raw volume. You can receive less conservative propaganda than your neighbor and still end up with a conservative worldview.

    yet a full 2/3 are absolutely against our War in Iran, and most of that remaining 1/3 are lying

    Americans are largely against the Iran War because it spiked the price of gasoline. That’s not a position rooted in morality. It’s the same consumerist reactionary sentiment that powered Trump to election the last two times he won (and Biden, the time Trump lost).

    The Israelis have had ample opportunity to reign in their aggression toward their neighbors for years

    ‘Prefer Death Over IDF’: Israeli Jews RIOT In Jerusalem; Refuses To Serve Military & Fight Hamas

    I’m so sick to death of hearing the “police state isn’t a big deal, you just need to fight armed goons on the street harder.” Tell it to Alex Pretti and Renée Good.

    Do you really think the violence of the Israeli state is limited to Palestinians? It is applied to every dissident group.



  • “Israel” isn’t synonymous with “Judaism”.

    What we have in Israel is one more instance of British colonial Divide and Conquer imperial strategy. Select a minority group, grant them favored status, heavily arm them and use them as your proxies to secure territory, isolate them geopolitically so you’re their only friends, then use them as de facto mercenaries to suppress the majority ethnic groups for their labor.

    The inversion of this strategy has been the degree to which Israelis have played this against their imperial sponsors. They’ve converted far right Christians into their own proxies, they’ve infiltrated the police and intelligence agencies of their benefactors, and they’ve exploited anti-Islamic sentiment to send Europeans to war against the majority ethnic groups across the Middle East.

    The lay Jew isn’t having a say in any of this. They’re just more pawns on the board for Israeli, American, and European power brokers to push around.







  • At some point, someone has to be out there willing to fuck with the machinery of the election. The problem Orbán has is his shrinking pool of people willing to do that. He’s running against his own PM, ffs. It’s not like we’re seeing a sea change in Hungarian politics. It’s just local plutocrats deciding they’ve had enough of Orbán’s ego and are trading him out for someone more pliable.

    Same thing happened to Petro Poroshenko in Ukraine. He fucked around way too hard and galvanized the whole country against him.