I think not even the CIA predicted the effectiveness of drones and javelins against old armor. Without modern defenses, they are just sitting (or slowly moving) ducks. Add to this the corruption in the military, causing lack of maintenance and missing parts, plus the gaps in skills and training of their soldiers.
We are maybe 1-2 years away from the Russian military collapsing, if it weren’t for the orange clown.
I said 15 months or less to hyperinflation somewhere yesterday. In that case, they could theoretically start conscription and grind Ukraine down that way, or start selling big ticket things like territory in exchange for help, but political capacity to enforce that is a serious question.
Edit: So, if anyone is keeping track as that deadline comes up, it seems I was wrong. One thing I didn’t realise is exactly how much foreign reserves they had. It’s very substantial. They actually resorted to internal shakedowns while there was still years of reserves, but I guess that’s just the system in Russia.
They’ve also found a way to fight without much armour at all, as their ability to supply it tapers off. This might mean more casualties but it’s not night and day. The stockpiles running out was a major part of the calculation there.
I think not even the CIA predicted the effectiveness of drones and javelins against old armor. Without modern defenses, they are just sitting (or slowly moving) ducks. Add to this the corruption in the military, causing lack of maintenance and missing parts, plus the gaps in skills and training of their soldiers.
We are maybe 1-2 years away from the Russian military collapsing, if it weren’t for the orange clown.
Even modern armor without active countermeasures like Trophy seem like they could be just as vulnerable to drones. Especially to top attacks.
I said 15 months or less to hyperinflation somewhere yesterday. In that case, they could theoretically start conscription and grind Ukraine down that way, or start selling big ticket things like territory in exchange for help, but political capacity to enforce that is a serious question.
Edit: So, if anyone is keeping track as that deadline comes up, it seems I was wrong. One thing I didn’t realise is exactly how much foreign reserves they had. It’s very substantial. They actually resorted to internal shakedowns while there was still years of reserves, but I guess that’s just the system in Russia.
They’ve also found a way to fight without much armour at all, as their ability to supply it tapers off. This might mean more casualties but it’s not night and day. The stockpiles running out was a major part of the calculation there.