I said 15 months or less to hyperinflation somewhere yesterday. In that case, they could theoretically start conscription and grind Ukraine down that way, or start selling big ticket things like territory in exchange for help, but political capacity to enforce that is a serious question.
Edit: So, if anyone is keeping track as that deadline comes up, it seems I was wrong. One thing I didn’t realise is exactly how much foreign reserves they had. It’s very substantial. They actually resorted to internal shakedowns while there was still years of reserves, but I guess that’s just the system in Russia.
They’ve also found a way to fight without much armour at all, as their ability to supply it tapers off. This might mean more casualties but it’s not night and day. The stockpiles running out was a major part of the calculation there.
I said 15 months or less to hyperinflation somewhere yesterday. In that case, they could theoretically start conscription and grind Ukraine down that way, or start selling big ticket things like territory in exchange for help, but political capacity to enforce that is a serious question.
Edit: So, if anyone is keeping track as that deadline comes up, it seems I was wrong. One thing I didn’t realise is exactly how much foreign reserves they had. It’s very substantial. They actually resorted to internal shakedowns while there was still years of reserves, but I guess that’s just the system in Russia.
They’ve also found a way to fight without much armour at all, as their ability to supply it tapers off. This might mean more casualties but it’s not night and day. The stockpiles running out was a major part of the calculation there.