The pessimism reflects concern that Russia may be winning a so-called hybrid war with Europe, weakening the options available to Nato war planners in the event of military conflict.
The surge in support for the populist forces in Europe’s main military states is also endangering proposals for a group of five European countries, including the UK, to take on a new coordination role as the US prepares to reduce its commitments to the conventional defence of Europe.
Defence officials, speaking at a forum convened by the Munich Security Conference (MSC), the leading security foundation, said the European public may not have the appetite for a prolonged war, requiring Nato to focus its plans on a relatively quick conflict.
One recent British cabinet member admitted the west had been “crap” at educating its public about the scale of the hybrid conflict with Russia. Another UK diplomat claimed successive British prime ministers had done nothing to explain the scale of the threat.
They said this had left ministers locked in an unenviable task of persuading unprepared voters to cut welfare spending to fund defence. “The level of the debate has been at that of a kindergarten,” the UK diplomat admitted.
The Battle of Dien Bien Phu is a better example of the Flypaper Strategy. In the case of Ukraine, Europe is not trying to draw Russia to attack Ukraine but it’s Putin making that choice. Actually, it would be better to attract Russia to attack Europe where it could be destroyed by the combined European armies and perhaps the US but don’t count on Trump. In the present situation, Europe could help Ukraine more. France could supply its Rafale fighter and Germany its Taurus missile.
I don’t think that works, as the “Flypaper” in this analogy would be better defined as the WW1 Central Powers.
Ukraine/Russia has much more in common with the European theaters of the World Wars (or the Napoleonic Wars) than the anti-colonial rebellions in their aftermath.
People keep floating this conflict as A) inevitable and B) decisively favoring Europe. But I cannot imagine a world in which any of the central European countries emerge from the conflict without suffering enormously.
Nobody actually wins in this kind of exchange.