The pessimism reflects concern that Russia may be winning a so-called hybrid war with Europe, weakening the options available to Nato war planners in the event of military conflict.
The surge in support for the populist forces in Europe’s main military states is also endangering proposals for a group of five European countries, including the UK, to take on a new coordination role as the US prepares to reduce its commitments to the conventional defence of Europe.
Defence officials, speaking at a forum convened by the Munich Security Conference (MSC), the leading security foundation, said the European public may not have the appetite for a prolonged war, requiring Nato to focus its plans on a relatively quick conflict.
One recent British cabinet member admitted the west had been “crap” at educating its public about the scale of the hybrid conflict with Russia. Another UK diplomat claimed successive British prime ministers had done nothing to explain the scale of the threat.
They said this had left ministers locked in an unenviable task of persuading unprepared voters to cut welfare spending to fund defence. “The level of the debate has been at that of a kindergarten,” the UK diplomat admitted.
But they failed. And their defeat was so horrifying for the French public that the government lost its civilian support and was forced to withdraw from Indochina as a result.
If Ukraine is Europe’s Dien Bien Phu, that doesn’t look good for the Europeans.
I have no idea how Russia and the rest of Europe can reconcile after the last decade of relational decay. But I have to assume there’s some path back to peace that doesn’t run through a Ukraine-style missile exchange that stretches all the way to the Atlantic. There’s no world in which Moscow trading ballistics with Berlin, Paris, and London ends better for humanity than one without it.
The flypaper theory is correct but in the Battle of Dien Bien Phu, the French underestimated the Viet Minh. Specifically, the French didn’t believe the Viet Minh would be able to haul artillery up the surrounding mountains.
What I said was that Europe would prefer that Russia attack it rather than Ukraine. Then the combined forces of Europe would be able to defeat Russia. War might be inevitable if Russia continues to attack Ukraine and provoke Europe with hybrid war. The UK and France gave Hitler the Sudetenland hoping that this would appease him and avoid war but it didn’t.