My understanding is the current PM of Spain, Pedro Sanchez, is incredibly unpopular in the country and is pretty much universally hated. National polls put his party, PSOE, at just 26% support. He is consistently losing to the conservative party, PP, and the hard right party, VOX, is quickly catching up to both. There’s a very good chance that the right wing parties are going to win the next general election in 2027 and form a majority coalition. The right wing parties, especially VOX, are very much pro Israel and against everything Sanchez does. So there’s a good chance that all this good will towards Palestine is going to be reversed next year if he and his party fail to maintain their seats.
Are we believing in polls again after they have been consistently wrong for the last decade? Almost as stupid as believing polls a year and a half out from a general election means something, like reading tea leaves at this stage. The incumbent is never popular at this point, extreme views at this point tend to temper at the polling booth, especially since the Spanish economy is doing well.
The Spanish public are still massively anti Israel due to all of their genocide and everything.
When have the polls been wrong? The polls have been pretty damn accurate every time. Any electoral differences within the margin of error or due to some institutional technicalities. You’ll need something truly extreme to shift the trends, otherwise this is the likely outcome. The only instance of this that I remember is the Canadian conservatives were poised to win a landslides because Canada universally hated Trudeau, but then Trump threatened to invade and annex Canada and that caused a change in the voters. I don’t forsee something like that happening in Spain.
Vox is a minority party, and are not going to win the general. The danger is only they’d be put into a coalition with the center right party, PP.
And that’s looking much less likely - Sanchez and the center-left aren’t overly popular, but opposition to the Iran War and the US in general is massively popular. Vox is the only party that’s been dumb enough to support Trump over Spain (ironic for supposed nationalists), and it’s going to cost them. Even the remnants of the Falange are breaking with them on this.
If PP wins, Vox is 100% going to be in the coalition. Once they’re in coalition, they will have great sway over policy. At that point it doesn’t really matter what the people say. The parties just push their agendas regardless. That’s why Sanchez and his government are so unpopular. It would be standard, as per the history of Spain’s past governments, for the new conservative government to continue that trend.
My understanding is the current PM of Spain, Pedro Sanchez, is incredibly unpopular in the country and is pretty much universally hated. National polls put his party, PSOE, at just 26% support. He is consistently losing to the conservative party, PP, and the hard right party, VOX, is quickly catching up to both. There’s a very good chance that the right wing parties are going to win the next general election in 2027 and form a majority coalition. The right wing parties, especially VOX, are very much pro Israel and against everything Sanchez does. So there’s a good chance that all this good will towards Palestine is going to be reversed next year if he and his party fail to maintain their seats.
Are we believing in polls again after they have been consistently wrong for the last decade? Almost as stupid as believing polls a year and a half out from a general election means something, like reading tea leaves at this stage. The incumbent is never popular at this point, extreme views at this point tend to temper at the polling booth, especially since the Spanish economy is doing well.
The Spanish public are still massively anti Israel due to all of their genocide and everything.
When have the polls been wrong? The polls have been pretty damn accurate every time. Any electoral differences within the margin of error or due to some institutional technicalities. You’ll need something truly extreme to shift the trends, otherwise this is the likely outcome. The only instance of this that I remember is the Canadian conservatives were poised to win a landslides because Canada universally hated Trudeau, but then Trump threatened to invade and annex Canada and that caused a change in the voters. I don’t forsee something like that happening in Spain.
and they’re massively against the US, especially as Trump has tried to attack Spain
Vox is a minority party, and are not going to win the general. The danger is only they’d be put into a coalition with the center right party, PP.
And that’s looking much less likely - Sanchez and the center-left aren’t overly popular, but opposition to the Iran War and the US in general is massively popular. Vox is the only party that’s been dumb enough to support Trump over Spain (ironic for supposed nationalists), and it’s going to cost them. Even the remnants of the Falange are breaking with them on this.
If PP wins, Vox is 100% going to be in the coalition. Once they’re in coalition, they will have great sway over policy. At that point it doesn’t really matter what the people say. The parties just push their agendas regardless. That’s why Sanchez and his government are so unpopular. It would be standard, as per the history of Spain’s past governments, for the new conservative government to continue that trend.