The opposite is true and I"ve been saying it since 10/8. I’ve been right so far. His coalition could already have failed if I was wrong. I believe I will continue to be right.
Well shit, you weren’t all wrong, looks like he might be able to hold on, they have a very large bloc, less than half but more than what I had read was expected.
Probably. My read is that Israel has one more electoral cycle in it, maybe two, before the the fascism completely overwhelms their democracy, but for now I don’t think Netanyahu has the public support necessary to pull of a violent takeover. It’d be a different story if the pro-genocide bloc (aka most of the Jewish population) felt genuinely threatened, but Netanyahu’s two most likely successors are both firmly pro-genocide so it’s basically just Netanyahu’s political fortunes and how fast the West Bank gets ethnically cleansed at stake.
I will be astounded if he loses. But even if he does, will he leave office?
also the other parties are more right wing than he is.
It’s hard to view Israeli politics from a western perspective
Most other parties have much softer stances on the West Bank, for example
None of the likely future PMs have a substantially different policy on Gaza
There is a bit of variety of opinions of Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan, although most plan to annex them eventually
He will lose, he can’t hold it together, not after 10/7 and his failure to be the law and order prime minister.
The new government will be even worse though from what I hear.
The opposite is true and I"ve been saying it since 10/8. I’ve been right so far. His coalition could already have failed if I was wrong. I believe I will continue to be right.
Well shit, you weren’t all wrong, looks like he might be able to hold on, they have a very large bloc, less than half but more than what I had read was expected.
Probably. My read is that Israel has one more electoral cycle in it, maybe two, before the the fascism completely overwhelms their democracy, but for now I don’t think Netanyahu has the public support necessary to pull of a violent takeover. It’d be a different story if the pro-genocide bloc (aka most of the Jewish population) felt genuinely threatened, but Netanyahu’s two most likely successors are both firmly pro-genocide so it’s basically just Netanyahu’s political fortunes and how fast the West Bank gets ethnically cleansed at stake.
He already did. He lost in 2021 and stepped down. He’ll likely step down again.