Then there are no consequences for annexing Crimea in 2014, which sets a worrisome precedent for Taiwan and Cuba (and of course, former SSRs all over Eurasia).
Putin will not give up Crimea. An article was posted today in this community about Ukrainians troops deserting. Both sides are exhausted. The war must end now.
Zelenskyy will not give up Crimea either, because his country’s constitution does not give him the power to. They’d both give up their lives if they gave up Crimea, but Putin is a) only driven by personal vanity and a desire to return the nation to 35 year old glory, while Zelenskyy is driven by a sense of justice and national pride rooted in something recently stolen from the country; and b) in a much worse position to survive the bad PR of continuing the war: it might not be Putin who ends the war, but Russia will not continue fighting for long.
I think the Russian people will more willingly give up the potential of gained territory than the Ukrainian people will give up part of their land, tbh. Putin was incredibly popular for many years (decades, even), but the cost of living in Russia is insane, and with gas shortages and bombings all over the countryside have dulled his shine.
Maybe I’m wrong, but I hope not. Invaders shouldn’t get to keep territory just because anymore. I’d be fine with giving each currently contested oblast in Ukraine an independence vote afterwards, but that should be independent of the peace process and if they were to join Russia, Ukrainian oblasts would be equally subject to reparations payments as the rest of Russia.
If Ukraine had invaded Russia and annexed its territory, I’d want Ukraine to cede its acquired territory and pay reparations, too, but they didn’t. The only thing they did to provoke this was to edge closer to Europe, which is certainly their right as a sovereign state.
The Russian people only have no say as long as they fear Putin more than they fear the war and/or distrust each other. If those meters tick over the midway point, they either refuse to follow military/conscription orders or they revolt.
If the other oligarchs begin to fear the people or the war more than Putin, they coup him, officially or otherwise (just ctrl+f for SSR, Russia, and Soviet if you want to read about some convenient “accidents”).
I think with the strikes throughout Russia, the people are beginning to fear the war more and with the proposed bank account confiscations, the oligarchs are beginning to fear the war more. I don’t know what will pop first (or if either will hit the tipping point before Ukraine does), but I don’t think Putin is in anywhere near as secure a position as he was five or even two years ago.
The problem is as you pointed out, it is uncertain what the Russian people or oligarchs will do. In my proposal, the war will end either with Putin accepting the offer or Britain and France joining the war and ending it.
I would prefer not to trade certainty for justice, to be honest. Some things are worth fighting for, and the concept of small state sovereignty is one of them.
Then there are no consequences for annexing Crimea in 2014, which sets a worrisome precedent for Taiwan and Cuba (and of course, former SSRs all over Eurasia).
Putin will not give up Crimea. An article was posted today in this community about Ukrainians troops deserting. Both sides are exhausted. The war must end now.
Zelenskyy will not give up Crimea either, because his country’s constitution does not give him the power to. They’d both give up their lives if they gave up Crimea, but Putin is a) only driven by personal vanity and a desire to return the nation to 35 year old glory, while Zelenskyy is driven by a sense of justice and national pride rooted in something recently stolen from the country; and b) in a much worse position to survive the bad PR of continuing the war: it might not be Putin who ends the war, but Russia will not continue fighting for long.
Both sides are exhausted. The Ukrainian government will be willing to cede land taken before the 2022 invasion in exchange for peace.
I think the Russian people will more willingly give up the potential of gained territory than the Ukrainian people will give up part of their land, tbh. Putin was incredibly popular for many years (decades, even), but the cost of living in Russia is insane, and with gas shortages and bombings all over the countryside have dulled his shine.
Maybe I’m wrong, but I hope not. Invaders shouldn’t get to keep territory just because anymore. I’d be fine with giving each currently contested oblast in Ukraine an independence vote afterwards, but that should be independent of the peace process and if they were to join Russia, Ukrainian oblasts would be equally subject to reparations payments as the rest of Russia.
If Ukraine had invaded Russia and annexed its territory, I’d want Ukraine to cede its acquired territory and pay reparations, too, but they didn’t. The only thing they did to provoke this was to edge closer to Europe, which is certainly their right as a sovereign state.
The problem is that the Russian people doesn’t have a say and Putin has no qualms about sacrificing them just as Stalin in World War II. See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L8fWp-i-BGA&t=28s
The Russian people only have no say as long as they fear Putin more than they fear the war and/or distrust each other. If those meters tick over the midway point, they either refuse to follow military/conscription orders or they revolt.
If the other oligarchs begin to fear the people or the war more than Putin, they coup him, officially or otherwise (just ctrl+f for SSR, Russia, and Soviet if you want to read about some convenient “accidents”).
I think with the strikes throughout Russia, the people are beginning to fear the war more and with the proposed bank account confiscations, the oligarchs are beginning to fear the war more. I don’t know what will pop first (or if either will hit the tipping point before Ukraine does), but I don’t think Putin is in anywhere near as secure a position as he was five or even two years ago.
The problem is as you pointed out, it is uncertain what the Russian people or oligarchs will do. In my proposal, the war will end either with Putin accepting the offer or Britain and France joining the war and ending it.
I would prefer not to trade certainty for justice, to be honest. Some things are worth fighting for, and the concept of small state sovereignty is one of them.