The Russian people only have no say as long as they fear Putin more than they fear the war and/or distrust each other. If those meters tick over the midway point, they either refuse to follow military/conscription orders or they revolt.
If the other oligarchs begin to fear the people or the war more than Putin, they coup him, officially or otherwise (just ctrl+f for SSR, Russia, and Soviet if you want to read about some convenient “accidents”).
I think with the strikes throughout Russia, the people are beginning to fear the war more and with the proposed bank account confiscations, the oligarchs are beginning to fear the war more. I don’t know what will pop first (or if either will hit the tipping point before Ukraine does), but I don’t think Putin is in anywhere near as secure a position as he was five or even two years ago.
The problem is as you pointed out, it is uncertain what the Russian people or oligarchs will do. In my proposal, the war will end either with Putin accepting the offer or Britain and France joining the war and ending it.
I would prefer not to trade certainty for justice, to be honest. Some things are worth fighting for, and the concept of small state sovereignty is one of them.
I think it is. Russian troops have been deserting the whole time (or getting zeroed). The Ukrainians still aren’t polling as wanting the war to end asap no matter what, and they’d need a huge percentage of the population in agreement before you could make a constitutional amendment.
The Russian people only have no say as long as they fear Putin more than they fear the war and/or distrust each other. If those meters tick over the midway point, they either refuse to follow military/conscription orders or they revolt.
If the other oligarchs begin to fear the people or the war more than Putin, they coup him, officially or otherwise (just ctrl+f for SSR, Russia, and Soviet if you want to read about some convenient “accidents”).
I think with the strikes throughout Russia, the people are beginning to fear the war more and with the proposed bank account confiscations, the oligarchs are beginning to fear the war more. I don’t know what will pop first (or if either will hit the tipping point before Ukraine does), but I don’t think Putin is in anywhere near as secure a position as he was five or even two years ago.
The problem is as you pointed out, it is uncertain what the Russian people or oligarchs will do. In my proposal, the war will end either with Putin accepting the offer or Britain and France joining the war and ending it.
I would prefer not to trade certainty for justice, to be honest. Some things are worth fighting for, and the concept of small state sovereignty is one of them.
But is that how Ukrainians feel after 4 years of fighting? Someone recently posted an article in this community about Ukrainian troops deserting.
I think it is. Russian troops have been deserting the whole time (or getting zeroed). The Ukrainians still aren’t polling as wanting the war to end asap no matter what, and they’d need a huge percentage of the population in agreement before you could make a constitutional amendment.
Both sides are exhausted. Zelensky would present the peace proposal to the Ukrainian people before he accepts it.