I get where you’re coming from, but the only ones that lose here are the suckers that think this is a fair game.
Predictionmarkets don’t work like a casino or sports betting. They are not the classic „house“ that you bet against in a casino, it’s more like a broker selling you futures on commodities. They earn their money via transaction fees for facilitating bets between people. So they win, no matter if the wager is rigged or not. This means that they probably don’t really care about it, or any other rigged bets at all. I would guess they might even like it, because every time there is a big article about some rigged bet like this, they get free press exposure.
Wait until you hear that Trumps son (idk which of the shit gremlins) is working in an advisory role for Kalshi and Polimarket at the same time, making sure they will not get any issues with the government. It’s all fucked to hell.
To be fair that is how the house in sports betting tries to work. They adjust the odds, the payouts, the spread, or whatever they else need to do to make money irrespective of the result of the game. The house just takes their cut.
The result is similar, but a casino will definitely care if you keep winning, because then their profit margins go down. If you keep winning at Roulette or always bet on the right horse the house will cut you off. Prediction markets don’t care. They make the same money wether you lose or win all of your bets, cause your winnings don’t come out of the pot that the house manages, they come directly out of the pocket of the people who took you up on your bet. At least that’s what they say…
There are rumors that polymarket etc also act like the house sometimes and take bets that no one wants to take. But atm I think those are not confirmed.
Hmfh, I’d put it down to some sort of money laundering scheme or political handout to supporters type thing, because there’s no way the house is winning when you can’t make reliable odds (short of a couple of insurance companies worth of actuaries) but now it makes a bit of sense, thanks.
Of course it’s probably both of those things, and I’m wondering where they get all the people betting against Trump stupidity, but the business plan is now understandable.
I get where you’re coming from, but the only ones that lose here are the suckers that think this is a fair game.
Predictionmarkets don’t work like a casino or sports betting. They are not the classic „house“ that you bet against in a casino, it’s more like a broker selling you futures on commodities. They earn their money via transaction fees for facilitating bets between people. So they win, no matter if the wager is rigged or not. This means that they probably don’t really care about it, or any other rigged bets at all. I would guess they might even like it, because every time there is a big article about some rigged bet like this, they get free press exposure.
Edited for clarity
I’ve never looked into them. You aren’t betting against the house, you are betting against other people?
Yeah, that’s the gist.
Watch this or that if you are interested to learn about the risks and financial fundamentals behind it all.
Shit, betting against other people sounds even MORE ripe for rigging results than betting against the house. That’s bonkers. Thanks for the info.
Wait until you hear that Trumps son (idk which of the shit gremlins) is working in an advisory role for Kalshi and Polimarket at the same time, making sure they will not get any issues with the government. It’s all fucked to hell.
To be fair that is how the house in sports betting tries to work. They adjust the odds, the payouts, the spread, or whatever they else need to do to make money irrespective of the result of the game. The house just takes their cut.
The result is similar, but a casino will definitely care if you keep winning, because then their profit margins go down. If you keep winning at Roulette or always bet on the right horse the house will cut you off. Prediction markets don’t care. They make the same money wether you lose or win all of your bets, cause your winnings don’t come out of the pot that the house manages, they come directly out of the pocket of the people who took you up on your bet. At least that’s what they say…
There are rumors that polymarket etc also act like the house sometimes and take bets that no one wants to take. But atm I think those are not confirmed.
Hmfh, I’d put it down to some sort of money laundering scheme or political handout to supporters type thing, because there’s no way the house is winning when you can’t make reliable odds (short of a couple of insurance companies worth of actuaries) but now it makes a bit of sense, thanks.
Of course it’s probably both of those things, and I’m wondering where they get all the people betting against Trump stupidity, but the business plan is now understandable.