What do they have to lose though? The moment the US starts bombing again the missiles start to fly.
What they lose is momentum. Oil prices, which is basically the only thing the Trump base cares about, are already falling, and if the ceasefire ever breaks, it will take quite some time to build them back up again. A lot of countries are already making plans to diversify away from the Gulf to mitigate that risk, some are looking into pipelines to avoid the strait altogether. All of which diminishes what leverage Iran has.
A second closure of the strait of Hormuz will much, much less effective.
Secondly, the politicians, journos and billionaires who supported that war on Iran are still very much here. This is far from over. The Americans will be back; not tomorrow, maybe not even this year, but when some opportunity arises again. This war was Iran’s chance to engrave into the American psyche some Vietnam-like PTSD every time they hear the word “Hormuz”, to make sure they never, ever try an attack like this again. With this ceasefire, they’re forfeiting that too, further allowing the US to buy more time.
I’m not sure they really lost momentum. They are still exerting control of the straits by enacting a toll, something they had already begun doing. A two week ceasefire isn’t enough time for countries to replenish their oil reserves and secure alternative energy sources. What they probably need to do now is extract concessions that allow them to rebuild and become even more resilient against US intervention. If they get even half of the 10 demands they laid out as part of the ceasefire agreement they’ll be in a more advantageous position long term.
The question I have right now is, will they resume firing on Israel now that it’s clear Israel has rejected the terms of the ceasefire? Everyone knows negotiating further with the US and Israel is pointless. Iran needs to show that if their demands aren’t met there will be consequences. If they don’t aid Hezbollah, that would be a sign they’ve lost momentum. It could mean that they aren’t confident enough to include their allies as part of the tit for tat strategy they’ve followed throughout the entire war.
What they lose is momentum. Oil prices, which is basically the only thing the Trump base cares about, are already falling, and if the ceasefire ever breaks, it will take quite some time to build them back up again. A lot of countries are already making plans to diversify away from the Gulf to mitigate that risk, some are looking into pipelines to avoid the strait altogether. All of which diminishes what leverage Iran has.
A second closure of the strait of Hormuz will much, much less effective.
Secondly, the politicians, journos and billionaires who supported that war on Iran are still very much here. This is far from over. The Americans will be back; not tomorrow, maybe not even this year, but when some opportunity arises again. This war was Iran’s chance to engrave into the American psyche some Vietnam-like PTSD every time they hear the word “Hormuz”, to make sure they never, ever try an attack like this again. With this ceasefire, they’re forfeiting that too, further allowing the US to buy more time.
I’m not sure they really lost momentum. They are still exerting control of the straits by enacting a toll, something they had already begun doing. A two week ceasefire isn’t enough time for countries to replenish their oil reserves and secure alternative energy sources. What they probably need to do now is extract concessions that allow them to rebuild and become even more resilient against US intervention. If they get even half of the 10 demands they laid out as part of the ceasefire agreement they’ll be in a more advantageous position long term.
The question I have right now is, will they resume firing on Israel now that it’s clear Israel has rejected the terms of the ceasefire? Everyone knows negotiating further with the US and Israel is pointless. Iran needs to show that if their demands aren’t met there will be consequences. If they don’t aid Hezbollah, that would be a sign they’ve lost momentum. It could mean that they aren’t confident enough to include their allies as part of the tit for tat strategy they’ve followed throughout the entire war.