“As far as we know, no coordination or deconfliction with existing satellites operating in space was performed, resulting in a 200 meter close approach between one of the deployed satellites and STARLINK-6079 (56120) at 560 km altitude.”
“As far as we know, no coordination or deconfliction with existing satellites operating in space was performed, resulting in a 200 meter close approach between one of the deployed satellites and STARLINK-6079 (56120) at 560 km altitude.”
Kessler syndrome seems increasingly inevitable as we potentially approach some of the great filters that explain why we’ve never met or detected any other civilizations in the universe. It’s been a fun ride, folks, but it seems like we might not have threaded this particular needle, finding it was ultimately narrower and our thread thicker and clumsier than we expected and we might instead be reaching the end of the road on our multiplanetary ambitions. Will we get to Mars? Maybe. Will we survive and thrive there? Doubtful.
If NASA could have built an actual base and shipyard, instead of being forced to JUST LAND A MAN ON MOON…I think we could be on our way toward Vulcan contact.
This timeline, just go hookers and blow cause it’s all fucked. Adding Kessler syndrome to exit velocity planing is just sticking the stick in the tire wheel
Kessler syndrome is something the Internet loves to talk about without truly understanding.
These satellites fly at a very low orbit, and will deorbit themselves within a few years if they go dead. They would likely deorbit even faster if there was a debris cloud following a collision.
We’re not going to be locked out of space for generations, not by any means.
Maybe, but not always. Debris from a collision can be flung in all directions, including higher orbits.
Thankfully, those higher orbits probably won’t be long term stable since the perigee will pretty much always be at the point of impact. But it could very well be stable for years, since most of the orbit won’t be dragging through the atmosphere anymore.
But the real risk is a cascade effect. One hit can create thousands of pieces of debris, which may well cause another hit. Etc etc.
Possible, but not at all likely. The joy of orbits are they’re pretty predictable because after the energy is applied the object just keeps following a path. To get a higher circular orbit would require deceleration at the right point to stabilize it. If this doesn’t happen, and it doesn’t in a collision, you will have a new orbit that will more or less pass through the altitude of the impact. So while it may have a higher apogee, it will have a lower perigee, which means it will suffer more drag due to more atmosphere. So the vast majority of debris from the collision of a LEO satellite collision will naturally deorbit, possibly faster than if the satellite hadn’t just become inert in its orbit.
Jumping from Kessler syndrome to Great Filter is a drastic and unwarranted step. Kessler syndrome is temporary, the debris is in a low orbit where atmospheric drag gives it a lifespan of years to decades. And even if it wasn’t, it only makes orbits within those debris belts dangerous, it doesn’t prevent you from launching through them.
It might not prevent launching through it, but for the years LEO is fucked, you’d need extra armor to withstand potential hits which would eat into your payload capacity.
Right, that’s exactly what I said.
A “Great Filter” is something that stops every civilization from ever expanding off its home world. Kessler Syndrome does not in any way fit this. It’s a temporary inconvenience that isn’t even guaranteed to happen.
I often wonder if environmental degradation could be the end of the line for humans, and if it might even be Great Filter material. Have other civilizations discovered the usefulness of fossil fuels, only to be ignorant, then apathetic, about their major downsides?
Why would one assume that every civilization is going to have access to fossil fuels in the first place? Earth has coal and oil because of a specific sequence of events that don’t necessarily follow.
Also, the severity of climate change that we’re facing is in no plausible way “end of the line” for humans. It could be disruptive to our current civilization but it’s not going to end us. One could even easily hypothesize alien planets where induced global warming would be an enormous benefit to a civilization living on it. Just a few tens of thousands of years ago major regions of Earth were covered with ice caps, if our civilization had arisen back then a case could be made that accelerating their melting would be beneficial in the long run.
This isn’t really Great Filter material.
I wasn’t trying to refute what you said, I was trying to expand on your “it doesn’t prevent you from launching through them.” by explaining the downsides of going through it.
It’s not as simple as just going through it, there are real implications for those years.
It actually is that simple, though. The amount of time that a launcher spends in one of those Kessler Syndrome zones while it passes through to a higher orbit would be measured in minutes. You can likely just ignore it and write off the one-in-a-million times your launcher hits something as just the cost of doing business.
Kessler Syndrome is a problem for satellites that want to orbit within those zones long term, as in spending years in there.
I think the odds would depend on how big the debris field is, but for non human cargo that might be acceptable, but I have a feeling that might not be the case with people on board, in which case they would need armor.
Edit: for non human cargo it could even be an option. Armored + X payload weight for $100/kg. Unarmored $60/kg + Y payload weight. (Made up numbers)
Kessler syndrome isn’t possible with these LEO constellations.
They are so low the debris would just deorbit themselves in a couple years.
It’s the much much higher orbits where they stay forever that is the problem.
Even the higher orbits aren’t as big a problem as might be assumed. There are still mechanisms other than aerodynamic drag that clear debris from those orbits, they’re just slower. And the combination of fewer high-altitude satellites and much bigger orbital volume make it harder to get a dangerous density of debris going in the first place.