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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: June 11th, 2023

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  • I can only speculate, since I’m not from there. To my understanding you aren’t either.

    If war came here, I would probably stay. Maybe because I’m an aeromodelist that flew drones already in 2004. I would probably think “it’s bad stuff, but I have trained for this job for 20 years”. But if someone didn’t give me a correct job to do, I’d politely refuse. Jail is better then stupidity.

    If someone thinks that jail is better than any participation in war, I understand.

    If someone thinks that emigration or hiding is better than jail, I understand. If my home country wanted my building or flying skills to invade or conquer, I’d disappear or resist.

    But there is something you need to understand, which I feel from reading your post that you don’t.

    In Ukraine, the president changes, in Russia, the same guy rules since Yeltsin picked and propped him up 25 years ago (after so much stealing that Putin’s first decree was to give Yeltsin and his family immunity, and of course, after Yeltsin had started enlarging presidential power during the constitutional crisis and the Supreme Soviet (parliament) had been fired upon). Putin continued that path, but the word “autocracy” seemed appropriate until recently. In the last decade, only the term “dictatorship” seems appropriate. Full totalitarianism hasn’t been achieved yet, but is approaching fast.

    In Ukraine, you can campaign and demonstrate against the government and my anarchist comrades operate above ground. Some of them have voluntarily joined the army, and some have died. Some have gone there from Russia, joined the Ukraininan army, and some of them have died too. They weren’t patriots. They just knew the difference and knew the cost of Putin’s regime to society. Officially, they fought for Ukraine. In their own mind, they fought to stop Putin’s conquest and help break his regime (which had imprisoned and killed people who mattered to them).

    In Russia, they operate underground. Saying the wrong stuff gets 5 years. Army has a habit of torturing and shooting its members. Police has a habit of torturing people. Courts take direct commands from the prosecutor and security apparatus. Opposition politicians die of poisoning or get railroaded to prison.

    If one has any interest in politics, the difference between Ukraine and Russia is massive. Only for a person who wants to eat in the morning, work during day and eat in the evening - with no interest in society whatsoever - only for that kind of a person is the difference limited. Yes, it’s possible to live in both countries. Sun still rises and wind still blows.

    Indeed, war has a flip side of selection. Ukraine will lose some percentage of its society and Russia will lose some percentage. The social profiles of the people who are lost - can be understood. Both societies are burning through their groups most willing to fight, but the way of mobilizing people differs considerably, so the groups that lose most members will differ by country.

    I will tell as much as I know about the profiles.

    • professional military -> very big losses on both sides
    • national guard and interior troops -> medium to big losses on both sides
    • volunteers (trained, well motivated) -> medium to big losses on both sides, they fight better than others, but also get sent to more dangerous misssions
    • conscripts (untrained, young) -> big losses only on Russian side, almost no losses on Ukrainian side (they don’t send folks under 25 to the front unless they volunteer)
    • reservists (trained, old) -> big losses only on Russian side, since they practise meat attacks (Ukrainians aren’t willing to attack under such conditions)
    • convicts (training varies, age varies) -> big losses on Russian side, since they practise meat attacks (Ukrainians only recently allowed convicts to join the war, and I have no idea about how they train or fight)
    • a Russian special seems to be burning through ethnic minorities from remote places

  • As far as I’ve read, starting from a known and equal condition (e.g. “you have a bullet wound in your arm”) or even no condition (“you are in a frontline trench”), levels of ending up dead differ quite radically. Ukrainians seem to be evacuating their wounded and don’t seem to practise suicidal attacks. I’ve seen fundraisers for remote-operated evacuation vehicles (stretcher on tracks), DIY ambulances and a long list of medical equipment.

    On the Russian side, it doesn’t seem to go like that. I’ve read of the wounded remaining on the front for weeks, and being pressed to attack again.

    Also, Ukrainians have infrastructure behind their back. Russians, not so much, because their attack has destroyed it.

    Numbers aren’t public, but I’d estimate a fourfold difference in survival of the same type of wound. Historians will figure out the exact rate later.


  • There is another aspect which the article doesn’t mention, so I better mention it.

    Sometimes units have ****head commanders, but you can’t get rid of them. Only anarchist armies (which haven’t proven very effective) have elected their commanders, and even then, typically not in battle.

    If a commander is stupid or careless (and sometimes tries covering up those qualities), it can take a while until someone of their peers or higher-ups notices. You can request a transfer away from such a unit, but the commander can deny the transfer.

    In Ukraine, if you go absent without leave, you don’t have to return to the same unit. So it’s one method of getting away from stupid or careless commanders, or units which have been neglected due to organizational problems. So in a way, many people running from a unit indicates that it needs attention: something is wrong there.

    Not knowing what it’s like to be under hostile fire, I can’t blame those people. As much reading tells, not everybody can take it. It is said that you can train everyone to perfection (the article tells that some get sent to combat with inappropriate training, which is obviously worse), but still, some people’s nervous system cannot handle continued risk of death. They break down, and should be employed in other than frontline roles. And some people’s health fails in other ways. A smart commander notices them and sends then back to the rear. Maybe they are good at logistics? Maybe they can build drones and do quality checking? Maybe they can treat the wounded? Etc.







  • Another candidate has also appeared:

    According to information from the maritime traffic monitoring service Marinetraffic, the tanker Eagle S had noticeably slowed its speed at the time the cable damage was identified.

    Based on monitoring data, a border guard patrol vessel directed the tanker away from the area near the Porkkala Peninsula early in the evening on Christmas Day. By early Thursday morning, both vessels were still in the vicinity of Porkkala.

    According to Marinetraffic, the oil tanker was en route from St. Petersburg to Egypt. The British maritime publication Lloyd’s List, which covers maritime traffic, reports that the Eagle S is part of Russia’s “shadow fleet.”

    …and another incident has been reported too…

    The German data center operator Hetzner also reported early Thursday that there were issues with the network connection between Germany and Finland, Helsingin Sanomat wrote on Thursday.

    “There is currently a fault in the main network connection between Frankfurt and Helsinki. This may cause short-term latency issues. We apologize for any inconvenience and thank you for your understanding,” the company stated in a press release.

    source: ERR


  • A plane (or part of a plane) can have the required aerodynamics for a “flat stall” (flat spin) or similar condition of falling. Depending on the plane (or part of it), and depending on whether a fire follows the fall - with incredible luck it’s possible to come down at parachute-like speed and get away with injuries only.

    However, if the plane was still controllable, then during an unpowered landing, pilots are supposed to trade speed for lift on the last moment. I guess they succeeded partly - they died, but folks in the tailward part stayed alive.

    Being able to question survivors will help determine what happened, but the holes in surfaces look like air defense shrapnel to me. :(


  • I actually hope they do rush - not with conclusions but with diagnostics - just a little.

    If it’s another spontaneous breakdown (there have been some) then there’s plenty of time. If however someone damaged it, then hours = kilometers.

    However, this cable has previously had transformer malfunctions, a short circuit at the site of climbing onto ground (ground shifted over years - I hope it hasn’t shifted again), but in light of recent power games on the Baltic sea, it would also be a candidate for plowing with anchors.

    Timing is pretty annoying. Baltic countries are leaving the old Soviet power grid synchronization area (physically disconnecting from Russia and Belarus and synchronizing with continental Europe) really very soon (in about a month) and nobody here would appreciate power connections being disrupted at this time.



  • That is also why Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia and several other countries aren’t planning to get any. Easier to let others have fighters, based in safer locations. Always possible to bring them forward to local air fields.

    South Korea doesn’t have a rear area to rely on, even its capital is in artillery range from the north - it has no plan B except overcoming the opponent very fast (to decapitate a command chain, you need stealth strikes through their air defense).

    Japan is an island far from the mainland - plenty of advance warning about an incoming ballistic payload. Poland has strategic depth like Ukraine. Greece doesn’t have that kind of a neigbour, but otherwise would qualify. Since it has very articulated landscape, it must optimize its ability for naval and air operations, so it needs good planes.

    Romania and Finland are the countries in your list that fit my categories and make me think - maybe there is some benefit to a country with small strategic depth in having a very expensive air force.

    In case of Finland, they have a large GDP per capita (enough to sustain an expensive project) and want their airforce to survive in range of the St. Petersburg air defense district of Russia (relatively densely armed). I think that, given the options (Jas-39 Gripen vs. F-35), they decided that “we must have an air force” and “nothing but a stealth air force will last in predictable conditions”.

    In case of Romania, I keep wondering why they chose it. I think they simply added Ukraine to their strategic depth calculation and and concluded “we have plenty of strategic depth, there will be lots of advance warning if anyone comes at us over Ukraine”.

    As for hardened hangars, the last ones over here (Estonia) to have them were the Soviets/Russians. Forward-deployed allied planes spend their time in lightly built above-ground hangars. I have no doubt in the planners knowing the state of the art. They simply aren’t that optimistic. There is every expectation that in case of war, planes cannot stay, but must temporarily retreat out of harm’s way. But you are correct to mention hardened shelters for planes, they should exist. But if one wants to keep operating in range of SRBM-s and attack drones - hardened everything, not just hardened hangars. (Sweden for example decided it wouldn’t have hardened everything, and designed a domestic fighter capable of flying off straight stretches of paved road.)

    To summarize: if you foresee fighting in a phone booth, don’t choose a longsword. :)


  • It’s expensive, sure.

    In some cases, it has no use. In a small Eastern European country, it makes more sense to buy drones, artillery and air defense. If the possible opponent is right next to you, an airfield hosting the F-35 would simply be smashed with ballistic missiles, leaving the fighter homeless. The same money in the form of other items would serve one better.

    Far over the ocean, far in the rear - different things make sense. Projecting force quickly to a big distance or intredicting an opponent that does that - requires fighter jets.

    For a country whose threat model involves supersonic bombers launching hypersonic missiles at its navy or shipping or coastline from beyond air defense range - that cannot be solved with today’s drones, but can be solved with F-35: “intercept the bombers before they launch anything, destroy their airfields”. Drones cannot currently stop a stealth fighter, or even stop an ordinary fighter: it will outrun them and possibly run circles around them.

    Drones of the future? Could take any form. Maybe some day, the F-35 is indeed a mobile command post in the sky and drones do the hard job. But not currently.


  • At this point, I haven’t seen any experts thinking of the GUR as a cause, they just reported about it since they keenly monitor everything Russian.

    People write that it was transporting cranes. On the deck, I see large structures which match the description. We can’t see into the cargo hold, though.

    GUR’s report was about “Sparta” developing fuel pump problems. Since “Ursa Major” has the alias “Sparta 3”, I think Ukraininans may have mixed up numbers in their report and it could have been “Ursa Major” which developed fuel pump problems.

    If the above premise holds true (no guarantee)… next I would guess that during repairs, an accident ignited a detonating mix of fuel vapours and the engine room became a potato cannon. Or maybe a fuel tank in the engine room blew apart. RIP for anyone in that compartment, probably a crack in the hull and maybe some loose cargo as a bonus.

    A more sinister scenario would be “cranes on the deck and ammo in the hold”. But ammo is a gift the typically keeps on giving - if the first items blows up, subsequent items enter a chain reaction. This was not the case.

    A far-fetched scenario would be an Ukrainian bomb planted in St. Petersburg or Kaliningrad (the ship was heading to Syria according to TWZ. So I doubt it. If Ukrainians could plant bombs anywhere in Russia, they would probably prefer to blow up something more interesting (like maybe an air defense system being returned from Syria by plane, or maybe the Kerch bridge, or some railway connecting Russia to North Korea, or something to that tune - since that would get them immediate benefits).





  • Hypothesis (shooting from the hip here, apologies if I miss by a kilometer):

    • an ex-muslim radicalized as an anti-islamist authoritarian rightwinger goes into a mental health crisis
    • his ideology prevents him from seeking help or treatment
    • being angry about everything, decides to take random people with him in his suicide by cop
    • tries to win his favourite party an election by committing a terror attack typically associated with islamists
    • remains alive to face trial

    Additional speculation: his former home country (Saudi Arabia) - known for sending teams of assassins with bone saws to kill dissidents in embassies when they apply for a passport - warns about the man, but nobody takes Saudi Arabia’s warnings seriously because they’re a tyranny that kills people. The warning gets thrown away along with loads of false warnings by Saudi Arabia.

    As for news, here’s another primary source:

    https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/justiz/magdeburg-news-polizei-geht-von-einzeltaeter-aus-hinweise-auf-zweites-auto-nicht-bestaetigt-a-16214d4b-1014-4648-b32a-82d11b748364

    A man drove a car into a group of people at a Christmas market in Magdeburg early Friday evening. According to SPIEGEL information, there are at least five dead, including a small child. According to official information, at least 60 people were injured, including 15 seriously injured.

    The driver of the car was arrested after the fatal drive. He is 50-year-old Taleb A., a doctor from nearby Bernburg. He was born in Saudi Arabia and came to Germany for the first time in 2006.

    The police currently have no evidence of accomplices. According to information from security circles, the suspect is not known to be an Islamist. He appears on the Internet as an ex-Muslim and opponent of Islam. The background to the incident is still completely unclear - just like the possible motive.

    SPIEGEL research has shown that Taleb A. openly sympathized with the AfD online. Read more about it here.

    …but the link noted as “here” is unfortunately paywalled, so that’s where my data ends.