A superpower by definition cannot really be a rogue state. A “rogue state” is a political label applied by dominant powers to states that defy the international order. For example Iran or North Korea are considered rogue states because they defy the international order. What is “the international order”?

Well, it’s the combination post-WW2 institutions created by none other than the US. The UN, IMF, NATO, etc. They set the norms of “legitimate” behavior. When the US participates in military interventions, economic sanctions, and other aggressive actions it’s framed as upholding “rules-based order” whereas identical actions by weaker states get them condemned with the label as “rogue states”.

To call the US a rogue state is to misunderstand power. Hegemony is the ability to define reality, not just defy it. In this way, the US has always been a rogue state in the sense that it does whatever it wants regardless of the international norms. I mean, just look at the mid 1900s and its actions in Latin America. It was involved in about a dozen states toppling governments and supporting military dictatorships- including sponsoring the genocide of natives in Guatemala.

not a problem. sometimes i assume everybody knows the history and context because they speak so confidently about the situation but i think a lot of people just get bits and pieces from the mainstream news

so to summarize

ukraine has a bit of a history with neo nazis. it goes all the way back to WW2 with famous figures like Stephen Bandera who is a sort of national hero because he was a nationalist who fought for Ukrainian independence. It just happens he also held Nazi views and collaborated with the Nazi government- even though they eventually threw him in jail because the Germans did not consider slavs “white”.

Anyhow that isn’t to say Ukraine as a whole is Nazi or that Russia’s invasion was justified or whatever. Just some context. There’s always a bit of truth in a lie, so when Russia says they’re invading to “de-nazify” Ukraine that isn’t the real reason but there are some deep-seated undercurrents of white supremacy in Ukrainian society.

So what about Azov Battalion? In 2014, there was an event called Euromaidan. This event was a series of protests against the then president of Ukraine which was a pro-Russian one. He was democratically elected of course and at that point, there was a split in Ukrainian society between pro-West and pro-Russia mostly divided up by geography. West Ukraine leaned towards West, East Ukraine leaned towards East. This makes sense and you would see very high rates of Russian-language speaking in the East. For example I think in Crimea like 80% of people spoke Russian as primary language even though it was ostensibly part of Ukraine.

Euromaidan was funded and supported by far-right nationalist / neonazi groups. These protests got more violent (largely due to instigation by neonazi groups) and eventually the president had to flee the country. The legislative body then appointed a temporary government, of which about 1/3rd was comprised of leaders from these far-right groups.

So why the hell does that matter? There’s a lot more to be said about Euromaidan but I’ll be brief (I can expand if you’d like).

Before 2014, Ukraine was firmly inside of Russia’s sphere of influence and had been for centuries. After 2014, the new government immediately started pivoting to the West. Essentially- Ukraine declared a war of independence.

So like 3 or 4 days after that new government appointed, Russia sent tanks into Crimea and sent covert forces into Donbas (they were popularly dubbed “little green men”)

This essentially started a low-level proxy war. Russia annexed Crimea fairly quickly and the Donbas provinces declared independence and Ukraine was essentially in civil war with the rebels supported by Russia.

Azov Brigade was a paramilitary organization. Remember the far-right organizations I mentioned before? The leaders of those organizations founded a militia, essentially. I’ll name some examples below and wikipedia links so you can read more

• Social-National Assembly

• Automaidan

• Patriot of Ukraine

• Tryzub

• Social-National Party of Ukraine

• National Corps

So Andriy Biletsky, the guy I quoted above, was involved with a lot of these organizations. And in 2014, when Russia invaded Crimea and the civil war started, he and a group of other far-right leaders founded Azov Brigade.

Also in 2014, he ran as an independent candidate for Ukraine’s congress (called Verkhovna Rada) in district 217 which is the Kiev’s district. He ended up getting 33.75% of the votes and won the election. Consider the implications. 33% of the votes in the nation’s capital were for an open white nationalist. From 2014 - 2019 he was an official member of congress from the Kiev (capital of Ukraine) district.

Anyhow, he’s a far right nationalist. Hates Jews, wants white supremacy, etc etc. He founded and led many far-right organizations. Back to the Azov Brigade.

On two separate occasions the US actually blocked military aid to Azov because they were a neo-nazi organization. There were also a couple votes to place them on the Foreign Terrorist Organization list, although the votes failed each time. Mostly because even though they’re Nazis they’re fighting Russia so they’re good enough.

This group became famous because they helped defend Mariupol and the area around the Azov Sea during the fighting with Russia. This basically caused them to be very popular in Ukraine, so a lot of people volunteered to serve under Azov. The Ukrainian government realized this was a nice way to get recruits and so they actually officially integrated the Azov Brigade into the Ukrainian military. Now the leaders of Azov, which were all extremist neonazis, are now high ranking members of the Ukrainian military.

For example Denys Prokopenko who is a Podpolkovnik (equivalent to lieutenant colonel).

Not sure what you know about army ranks but it’s essentially the 7th highest military rank out of 39 ranks

SO to summarize

Azov was founded by neo-nazis like Biletsky. Biletsky was elected to Ukraine’s federal legislative body. Biletsky is an outspoken white supremacist. Azov is now an official and integrated part of the Ukrainian military.

what are the conclusions?

there is a strong undercurrent of neonazis in Ukraine and they have a disproportionate influence. they are relatively small if you look at the numbers, but they essentially helped overthrow the Ukrainian government in 2014 during Euromaidan, made up 1/3rd of the federal government after Euromaidan, and managed to get integrated into the military.

Please don’t misunderstand me. Majority of Ukraine is not neonazi. They have a small group of very organized, dedicated, and well-funded far-right extremists. That group of people managed to shift the path of Ukrainian history to what we see today.

That doesn’t mean Russia’s invasion is justified. That doesn’t mean the average Ukrainian hates Jews. Etc. I’m just going over the context and a little bit of the history. There’s so much more to talk about please let me know if you have any questions

I think a lot of people don’t understand the history or context of this war whatsoever and just accept mainstream media’s interpretation as fact. Which is wild to me because those same people recognize others lies- for example when the New York Times writes apologist propaganda for Israel. But for whatever reason, this war in particular people have an ideological blind spot for.

i wouldn’t fight for the US either

but I’ll bet you won’t find a federally elected politician that says something this blatantly nazi

Apart from the question of purity, we must also pay attention to the full value of a Race. Ukrainians are a part (and, at that, one of the largest and most qualitative) of the European White Race. the Race-Creator of a great civilization the highest human achievements. The historic mission of our Nation in this crucial century is to lead the White Peoples of the world in the last crusade for their existence. A crusade against the sub-humanity led by the Semites

here in the US you have to use dog whistles

where?

i don’t disagree. i think this one specifically is currently taking aim at muslims specifically while the other was more generalized

not sure if sarcastic 🤔

i’m sorry but a country that elects a neo-nazi into parliament or idolizes nazi-collaborators is not one that i would consider fighting for if i’m anti fascist.

russia isn’t any better. but the ukraine v russia war is an independence war where one set of oligarchs wanted to break free from the subjugation from another set of oligarchs.

i won’t edit anything i’ll stand behind what i say

Kamala is part of the problem. Unchecked neoliberal capitalism has created Trump. Yes, obviously, I would prefer the status quo over fascism. We all would.

But as long as the majority of the country is financially insecure fascism will rise. Establishment DNC is just as guilty as the establishment GOP in causing this tragedy

you keep feeding the oligarchs long enough and they attempt a coup.

they’re likely federal agents that are used to working behind desks

according to reuters 80% of ATF agents for example have been assigned immigration work

25% of DEA workload has been transferred to immigration

some portion of IRS agents as well are doing immigration

and then even some federal agencies people have never heard of that handles stuff like document fraud (visas, passports) are now participating in manhunts for illegals

it’s essentially all hands on deck

yeah fight fascism by joining the Azov Battalion founded by the famous anti-fascist Andriy Biletsky

What was fascinating, or perhaps horrific is a better word, about the article that I didn’t know about is the brief mention of “The Canary Mission”

Here’s from their about page:

Canary Mission documents individuals and organizations that promote hatred of the USA, Israel and Jews on North American college campuses and beyond. Canary Mission investigates hatred across the entire political spectrum, including the far right, far left and anti-Israel activists.

Canary Mission is motivated by a desire to combat the rise in anti-Semitism on college campuses. We pursue our mission by presenting the words and deeds of individuals and organizations that engage in anti-Semitism, racism and bigotry on the far right, far left and among the array of organizations that comprise the anti-Semitic Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions (BDS) movement.

Essentially they gather dossiers on private individuals that they claim are anti-semitic. So, I looked up the woman that was taken off the street like a Ukrainian draft-dodger.

https://canarymission.org/individual/Rumeysa_Ozturk

Rumeysa Ozturk engaged in anti-Israel activism in March 2024, in the wake of the Hamas terrorist attacks on Israelis on October 7, 2023.

Ozturk is a supporter of the Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions (BDS) movement.

What was the anti-Israel activism, you ask? I figured it was some sort of protest. Sort of like the one in New York where they occupied a building.

Nope

On March 26, 2024, Ozturk co-authored an op-ed published in the Tufts Daily newspaper titled: “Try again, President Kumar: Renewing calls for Tufts to adopt March 4 TCU Senate resolutions.” The authors urged “President Kumar and the Tufts administration to meaningfully engage with and actualize the resolutions passed by the Senate.”

The op-ed referred to the passing of anti-Israel resolutions by the Tufts Community Union (TCU) Senate, which demanded the University “…acknowledge the Palestinian genocide, apologize for University President Sunil Kumar’s statements, disclose its investments, and divest from companies with direct or indirect ties to Israel.”

At Tufts university, the Community Union Senate (not really sure what this is. a student council or something) passed a 3/5ths majority resolution urging the president of the university to

1. acknowledge the Palestinian genocide

2. apologize for some statements, I don’t know what

3. disclose its investments

4. divest from companies with direct or indirect ties to Israel

She co-wrote an op-ed essentially demanding the president follow the resolution that was passed. That’s the “anti-Israel activism” she’s guilty of. I suppose that’s enough to be deported. Be careful out there guys. If you aren’t a citizen, shut up about your political views until you are. Because there are eyes out there watching everything you do. Even if you are… consider what you are doing. You may be making an enemy of a vindictive state that is willing to break the rules.

Here’s the op-ed, in case you’re interested: https://www.tuftsdaily.com/article/2024/03/4ftk27sm6jkj

These resolutions were the product of meaningful debate by the Senate and represent a sincere effort to hold Israel accountable for clear violations of international law. Credible accusations against Israel include accounts of deliberate starvation and indiscriminate slaughter of Palestinian civilians and plausible genocide.

Lock 'em up, I guess. If you believe that Palestinian civilians have a right to life then you are a terrorist-sympathizer in this administration’s opinion.

Israeli people and the Palestinian people are victims of their and each other’s respective warmongering hardline governments

Overwhelming majority of Israelis support the genocide.

It’s tens of thousands of Palestinians that are dying, not Israelis. It’s the Palestinians that had their airport blown up decades ago. It’s Palestinians that live in an apartheid regime. It’s Palestinians that did not have the right to leave their prison. It’s Palestinians that had to deal with MK84 2,000lb American made bombs blowing up on their homes. It’s the Palestinians that are going without food and water and electricity.

There is no equality here. This is not a both sides thing. One side is committing a genocide and the other side is being genocided. That’s it. That isn’t an excuse for Oct 7. That isn’t to mean that Hamas is blameless.

But if you took all the crimes of the Palestinians and put it on one side of the scale and all of the crimes of the Israelis and put it on the other, there is no comparison.

They blockaded all of Gaza and destroyed the only airport in Gaza with bombs.

They wouldn’t allow construction materials in. Limited lumber, steel, concrete, glass.

In order to leave Gaza, Palestinians needed to apply for a special ID with the Israeli government and needed a “valid reason” which essentially only meant leaving for business.

Israeli supreme court ruled in early 2000s that Gazans did not have the right to visit West Bank.

Not even if they left through Egypt, flew to Jordan, and tried to enter from Jordan. They would be denied entry.

Gaza and West Bank are part of the same country. Yet they did not have the right to visit family in their country.

Virtually all legitimate organizations, including the EU and the UN considered Gaza to be occupied during the blockade.

Israel never left. Stop spreading propaganda online. Israel never gave up control of Gaza. They controlled what went in, they controlled what came out. They controlled what buildings can be built and which buildings would be destroyed by bombs. They controlled where Gazans could fish and they controlled what items were considered “legitimate”

but they’re checking off demographics at an alarming rate.

yeah those two arab protestor students that are getting deported- they’re essentially getting detained and eventually removed because they spoke out against Israel. it’s an attempt to put a damper on speech for the whole country. sort of sending a message to immigrants- you better watch what you’re saying or we will get you

Vast majority of immigration detention centers are privately owned

It’s a sharp contrast to private prisons where it’s less than 10%.

the current stance is fairly mild. Canada taxing something like 10% of American imports (which represents less than 1% of total American exports) when Trump is threatening 80% of all Canadian exports is not the aggressive retaliation the rhetoric would have you believe

Sometimes you have to fire customers

i knew a guy with a cleaning business. it grew to a fairly large size (roughly ~30 employees with an office and secretaries, etc) over the course of a few years, although about 80% of the revenue came from one client. he eventually lost that client and the business had to fire most of its staff. he had to sell two properties he owned to pay off debt he had accumulated- he was spending money at a rate that was not sustainable because he assumed that money would always come in at the same rate.

he ended up giving up and sold the business to a couple of outside guys. those guys hired a sales team and diversified the business and now it’s doing great- grew literally 10x bigger than it was under original owner. but it took years.

moral of the story? when all your eggs are in one basket, you are very vulnerable.

you also have to consider that America is not only a customer, but a vendor too. Tariffs placed on American imports will lead to more tariffs being placed on Canadian imports. You not only lose sales but a source of goods. i really think most people in this thread do not fully recognize the severity of Canada’s position

but frankly it will be political suicide

It will also be political suicide to trigger a historic recession. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. I feel bad for the new banker PM. He’s essentially a political lamb to the slaughter. Trudeau is getting out at the right time- his legacy will remain intact.

What would you consider a sufficiently forceful response?

So far Canada has taxed something like 10% of American exports into Canada with threats to increase that if Trump does not remove the initial tariffs.

Trump is threatening to tax all Canadian exports into US. And 80% of Canadian exports go to the US.

To summarize: US put a tariff on roughly 80% of all Canadian exports (there’s nuance here, like a few exclusions and certain goods have lower tariffs like oil)

Canada retaliated by putting a tariff on a little less than 1% of all American exports

Canada has a knob they can twist that goes up all the way to 10~12% of American exports. They can’t go any higher than that.

They’ve decided to start very small, even though Trump is threatening virtually everything.

The risk is if you go too high, Trump may increase his tariffs from 25% to a higher number. Amplifying the economic pain and potentially triggering an immediate recession with millions of job losses and the collapse of various industries.

So what’s the correct number? How do you stand up to a bully but also avoid an economic crisis?

It’s a very dangerous game and I do not envy your new banker PM. That’s why Trudaeu was so happy when he was leaving with his chair lol.

Mexico is taking a more muted response. They are in an even worse position.

What are you taking issue with? I said sky is blue and you say “yes you’re right but the grass is green”.

Canadian trade with America- of which both imports and exports are counted, as you yourself stated- represents a value which is roughly 43% of Canadian GDP.

The US may suffer more than the 0.3% in an overall sense because of trade war with other countries, OK. But the impacts from these specific tariffs- the topic of the conversation- are expected to be -0.3% for US and -3% for Canada & Mexico.

I was pointing out 2 things

A) Canada (and Mexico) are relatively small economies that have become increasingly dependent on US trade and foreign investment.

B) Because of this, they are going to experience a much worse fallout from a trade war- about an order of magnitude.

Mexican & Canadian trade combined don’t even reach 4% of US GDP. They simply do not have the leverage to hurt the US in the same way US can hurt them.

Am I making the argument Trump is correct in this decision-making? No he’s a fascist who wants to hurt foreigners just as much as he wants to hurt Americans.

Am I making the argument America is going to be immune from trade wars? No, it’s gonna fuck all of us. And if we continue to escalate trade war with China and EU we will start seeing much worse effects.

4/5ths of a country’s exports do not get rerouted in 12 months.

i feel like the most likely outcome is that Canada (and Mexico) end up playing ball with Trump once he feels he did enough of whatever stupid PR stunt he needs to do and ameliorates a bit

Canada is not gonna get a better market for its goods than the largest economy in the world that speaks the same language and has had decades of integration. point blank isn’t happening

right now there’s a wave of nationalism sweeping canada (maybe that was trump’s goal- encourage populism) but reality sets in eventually and the banking class will do whatever they have to do to keep those economic indicators up

Also, in terms of numbers: about 25% of Canadian GDP is based on US trade

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12595 US-Canada trade amounts to $920B

Canadian GDP roughly $2.1T

Or roughly equivalent to ~40% of GDP depending on the year

This will be devastating for everyone, the US included.

it will be painful for US but whatever US feels, Canada & Mexico will feel 3x worse (and that number can go up 10x worse if they retaliate)

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/trumps-25-tariffs-on-canada-and-mexico-will-be-a-blow-to-all-3-economies/

go to figure 1. us economy might slow ~0.3%. canada & mexico go into recession. -3% easy with retaliation

note the tariffs are stupid and reckless and cruel and i don’t support them at all. im just adding context because i did not realize how fucked Mexico & Canada were until I looked into it