China might have a 2 year window coming up where it’s even possible to invade Taiwan. Their military has modernized a lot, but they probably aren’t quite to the point of being able to pull it off. At the same time, they are looking at a demographic cliff from the long term implications of the One Child policy.
It’s possible this window as already closed. That said, authoritarian regimes have started wars before that were terrible ideas.
Eeeeehhh, if you just look at numbers of boats, yes. The US Navy has far, far more experience, though. Drones are also going to change the game in ways we’re only starting to see with the Ukraine War. With that, the answer might be “everyone’s boats are sunk now”.
China probably couldn’t gain air superiority over Taiwan, and without that, an invasion will fail. That will be true even if the US ends up losing more boats.
Cause and effect are a little twisted here. Trump was already undermining NATO during is first term by saying European members should spend more. They didn’t agree at the time, but the Ukraine War proved that Europe really did need a more domestic MIC, and now they are.
Trump wasn’t saying it in the first place because he thought it would help NATO.
Tactical nukes can stop just about any invasion.
Ukraine had nukes and gave them up. They were invaded.
Iraq gave up their WMD program after the first Gulf War. They were invaded again.
Iran definitely had a nuclear program, but doesn’t appear to be pursuing it anymore. They’re getting attacked and quite possibly will get invaded.
South Africa had a nuclear program and gave it up. Left alone.
The Great Powers, particularly the United States but also Russia, have shown that your country should just keep going once you start. Chances are, you’ll get invaded, anyway.
This is not the way towards anti-proliferation.
It works like Mr. Burns’ immune system. Everyone is trying to listen in on Trump, but they step on each others toes and cancel out.
Star Fleet Intelligence also operates on this principle.
Lead-acid batteries aren’t great, and you do need some care to recycle them to make them like new, but it can be done. They’re good enough to run a small hauler that would be useful in and around your bunker.
In a bunker, class consciousness happens on speedrunning mode.
May not matter. Authoritarian mindsets might be quite happy enslaving just one other person. Here’s a documentary about it.
I think there’s a kind of sunk cost fallacy at work with preppers. Many of them start with the notion that it’s good to be prepared, just in case. However, being prepared for this sort of thing isn’t a casual exercise. It’s a whole hobby.
What if the collapse doesn’t come? All that time and effort would be wasted. Better do something to make it collapse.
Electric motorcycles? Do preppers have an understanding of how gasoline absorbs water from the air and is substantially worse within a matter of months? Even with stabilizer, you get a few years out of it, tops. What are you going to use for the rest of your life?
To be fair, the writers of post-apocalyptic Hollywood movies don’t understand it, either.
Or Putin dies of natural causes. Which isn’t too farfetched. Then the oligarchs find themselves a Deng Xiaoping-like figure who says “ok, all that was bad, let’s do something else”.
Probably, Russia will have to face the facts that they can’t build their own fighter jets, bombers, tanks, or fighting ships larger than a destroyer anymore. Not on the scale they need. Even if you assume some of the designs they’re putting out are good (a big assumption), they can’t possibly build them at scale. China is sitting right over there with the factories for those things. Xi Jinping will be happy to take their check, but will make sure it clears first.
It didn’t need to be far.
Artillery range is around 70km. You need to get that close to the southern most road along the coast into Crimea, and a little more for padding some defense. Now you can turn that road and anything on it into rubble whenever you want.
Ukraine got within a few km of doing that at some areas.
The Kerch Strait Bridge could be hit whenever by a missile. Ukraine had already hit it by then.
There’s a port at Sevestapol. It’s also been hit by Ukranian missiles before, and even if not, it’s not enough on its own.
Airplanes expend lots of fuel for not much cargo. You’re not going to supply Crimea that way.
There would be no logistical options left for Russia. Holding those couple of km more would starve it out. Only question is if Putin tries to hang on out of stubbornness.
The 2022 offensive failed because there wasn’t enough support. Ukraine was saying they needed X tanks, shells, guns, whatever from the West, and they actually got around X/3. Even with that, they very nearly made it far enough that Crimea would have been logistically cut off. Russia would have either needed to come to terms or else Crimea literally and metaphorically starves.
There isn’t really a way to hide what you’re doing. You have to build up forces at your bases, move a lot of material, etc. The timing wasn’t going to be a surprise, either, because local seasonal weather changes put a demand on when you do things.
If not for nukes, nobody would give a shit about Russia. Their army has fluctuated between being excellent and being worse than useless for its entire history, and they’re currently on a low end of that cycle. As for the Russian navy, the Cold War might have been the only time period where it was worth a damn.
So no, they’re not a superpower. They’ve been running on nukes and momentum since the dissolution of the USSR.
Just to put it in perspective, Wikipedia is currently listing the “before being destroyed” numbers, along with a note of “obsolete source”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Russian_military_aircraft
Before this attack, their bomber force was:
It’s apparently the first two that got hit most. 40 total gone is a significant chunk of their whole bomber force, and they ain’t going to be able to replace them.
Have you ever chained three Cisco 2600 routers together and then successfully ping’d clients on each end? Do you know what BGP is? OSPF? Do you know the difference between routing and routed protocols?
I know you don’t, because people who do don’t make the claims you’re making.
No they fucking don’t, that’s not what routers do. You don’t know what you’re talking about.
And don’t fucking tell me NAT is for security, either.
Skype won’t be supporting anything at all very soon.
What happened with Vonage is something that could happen with any kind of instant messaging, including things like Discord.
With everything directly addressable (not just static addresses, but directly addressable), an IM/VoIP service can simply connect to the recipient. No servers are necessary in between, only routers. That doesn’t work with NAT (CG or otherwise), so what you have to do is create a server that everyone connects into, and then that forwards messages to the endpoint. This is:
This is largely invisible to end users until free services get enshittified or something goes wrong.
Yes, it’s only tangentially related to static addresses, but it’s all part of the package. This is not the Internet we should have had.
And at least in the US (in single family homes) its crazy unlikely that your router is behind any NAT
Your router has NAT. That’s the problem. CGNAT is another problem. My C&C: Generals issues did not have CGNAT.
It was a talking point that Trump had in his first term. He tends not to let go of bad ideas once they get into his head.
At the time, people didn’t take it seriously. With the Ukraine War, Europe feels like it has to now. But it’s going to be domestic production, not paying US MIC companies like Trump was thinking.