I didn’t say that the protests like this make massive measurable positive effect. You claimed they had negative impacts on what the protestors wanted to achieve. Which according to this single study was incorrect in this instance, and in fact it may help the more moderate protestors.

There is evidence to suggest that you are wrong

https://phys.org/news/2024-10-disruptive-protests-fringe-groups-moderate.html

Nah, there is never enough for oligarchs

On point two you are correct only if the attacking force has air/sea supremacy like the us did in WWII. With drones I have a very hard time believing that will be the case. That is what makes it hard. Sure landings are brutal, but logistics is a nightmare when you have to supply your troops with vulnerable ships. That is why the Russian navy getting smacked about by Ukraine is so relevant.

Everyone in the lead up to the Russian invasion thought Russia had a world class army (besides some analysts like Philips O’Brien). Three day invasion is how many western analysts were spinning it (Michael Koffman is the one I remember talking about this). I think it is a stretch to believe that the Chinese military is any better, especially since their last fight was, what, in the 70s against Vietnam?

Ukraine doesn’t have a giant moat around it. Taiwan does. Amphibious warfare is much much much harder than land based war. Probably by like 2 orders of magnitude at least. Keeping an army supplied in that environment is very very hard and that was before drones made defense warfare extremely effective. The US stopped supplying weapons to Ukraine for a few months last year and they held the line quite well just with their drones.

I wouldn’t want to be getting into a shooting war after seeing what Russia has got itself into. Fuck, Russia lost its fleet to a country without a navy.

Does Xi think he can keep a land army supplied in the era of drones taking out surface combatants?