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Cake day: September 6th, 2024

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  • You spend your life building a beautiful home. Right when you pay the mortgage off and finish the last detail…a drunken maniac busts in the door, shoots you, and moves into your former home. And he just gets away with it because there’s no cops in your town.

    Or, more concretely, you build a magnificent culture, industry, society, and economy. You invest in your people and technological innovation. You turn your nation into an economic powerhouse. Then the neighboring country, who put all of their more limited resources into the military, storms across the border and takes over your little paradise. Now you’re still paying the tax levels of a Nordic welfare state, but all of the money just goes into the pockets of the warlords and oligarchs of the mafia state that just conquered you.






  • Violence and chaos is the point. Neither Israel or the US have the means or motivation to actually occupy Iran with ground forces and to build a new government from scratch. Hell, look how well that worked in Iraq. The goal is instead to turn Iran into a failed state that is completely incapable of providing even the most basic services to its population. A collapsed state can’t build effective missiles or support proxy wars outside its borders. At best you can knock together a few hamas-style bottle rockets in garage workshops.

    Right now the goal is to wipe out the government leaders and military assets. When that fails to result in the overthrow of the Iranian government, the US and Israel will move on to civilian infrastructure. The power grid. The water systems. Fuel production and distribution, bridges, ports, rail lines, etc.

    If they can’t topple the Iranian regime, they’ll leave the Iranian regime ruling over a pile of ashes, a nation with the infrastructure level of Somalia.

    You can’t install a friendly government with air power alone. You can however do enough damage to a nation’s infrastructure that it can’t even keep its own people alive, let alone have the spare resources to affect things beyond its borders.

    That is the real goal of this war. To turn Iran into a failed state.