I think you’re putting too much weight on established precedent. The precedent you’re citing were attacks made by non-state actors, and fighting back was easy since they didn’t have air superiority. Precedent is going out the window if a more serious threat attacks a member state.

I never said Ukraine would collapse, but they’re not winning for the reasons I already mentioned

First, Rubio is parroting a wildly accepted fact. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2024/05/16/7455980/

They’ve run out of youthful soliders and are drafting older men now.

Second, I’d imagine the pace of losses would accelerate once Ukraine started drafting the elderly and children, but it won’t come to that. Also a lot of Ukrainians have already left to dodge the draft.

Lastly, why are we even piddling about troop numbers? They seem insignificant given the larger problems Ukraine is facing. Let’s circle back to my original points.

The main, possibly only, glimmer of hope in the article was “assets in and outside Russia had strong evidence that Russian arms production during 2025 has flatlined and is likely to contract, because of parts and labor shortages,” and Russia is drafting 100,000 fewer men than last year. That seems well short of “starting to win,” unfortunately. Ukraine also appears to be losing 1/3 of their military support if what Zelensky said in the article is true.

Russia is fighting a war of choice but is continuing on with callous disregard for it’s own troops. Their arms production is slowing down but so are their drafting efforts. North Korea is providing artillary shells and rockets. Ukraine is losing 1/3 of its military support and its army is aging. Unless they figure out how to fight in a new way that restores their ability to maneuver, then all they can hope for is a negotiated settlement.

Here I have a source too, one that’s a bit more specific: https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-army-war-attrition/

Relevant quote:

"The problem that Ukraine is facing is not that they are running out of money, [it] is that they are running out of Ukrainians,” U.S. `Secretary of State Marco Rubio said during his confirmation hearing.

My opinion: They’re not going to win. Also it’s disingenuous to say they’ve been holding back a Russian invasion for 11 years.

Defend their front from what? How is Ukraine’s army doing?

The main, possibly only, glimmer of hope in the article was “assets in and outside Russia had strong evidence that Russian arms production during 2025 has flatlined and is likely to contract, because of parts and labor shortages,” and Russia is drafting 100,000 fewer men than last year. That seems well short of “starting to win,” unfortunately. Ukraine also appears to be losing 1/3 of their military support if what Zelensky said in the article is true. Did I miss something?

Bah, don’t be a weiner. They sometimes have good points. Keyword is sometimes. It’d be a community disservice to remove their perspective from the mileau.

If Moscow perceives NATO as weak, Russia could be ready to wage a “large-scale war” in Europe within five years, the Danish Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS) has said.

They didn’t say Russia will, they said Russia could. I feel like this is fearmongering to a certain extent. How is the war in Ukraine going for Russia? They’re winning, sure, but they’re fighting hard for every kilometer and it’s costing them. I really don’t think any other country is worth as much as Ukraine is from Russia’s point of view.

Well it was more like a greenhouse in function. It became quite hot after the sun came out.

My dad put their cage in our sunroom during the night because they were making too much noise. Eventually the sun came out.