Among the reciprocal tariff levels Trump announced:
China: 34%
European Union: 20%
South Korea: 25%
India: 26%
Vietnam: 46%
Taiwan: 32%
Japan: 24%
Thailand: 36%
Switzerland: 31%
Indonesia: 32%
Malaysia: 24%
Cambodia: 49%
United Kingdom: 10%
Rest of the world: 10%
The effects of widespread tariffs is well known.
You will lose industry that makes high added-value products, and increase the production of products with low added-value. (Most people call this “deindustrialization”.)
Tariffs mostly don’t impact the overall trade balance, so there’s no reason to expect that one to change.
Except, for example many Canadians, who are really fed up with being the kick ball for American Presidents (Trump has a lot of company when it comes to tariffs), who will do their best to not buy anything from the USA. I predict our trade deficit will go in the opposite direction that Trump hopes. The USA still needs to buy electricity, gas/oil, wood, and various other raw products from Canada. We don’t have to buy finished goods from the USA since there are plenty of other countries to supply them. We really don’t need to vacation there.
AFAIK, most low added-value products the US net exports are food. Also AFAIK, Canada mostly doesn’t buy those, but the countries that do buy them won’t just stop.
And since we haven’t moved the needle on the minimum wage in decades, people will be making those low-added value products at starvation wages.
Well, yes, wages tend to decrease on that shift.