written from the perspective of
China should help US reopen SoH if not force US hegemony on Iran
China is not going to interrupt the US from sinking into its own quagmire. A rationed shipping schedule from SoH means China’s permission for everyone else to get crumbs, and China has massive other energy sources. When media/politicians pretend that China needs SoH open, they just need the US blockade to be removed.
China failing to sink US navy or destroy Israel air bases is what keeps SoH closed. GCC still projecting that US alliance helps instead of harms their security and not pivoting to their customer(s) needs is what keeps SoH closed. Strategic patience by China is the SoH problem instead of accelerating US collapse/defeat/loss of colonies.
Very easy actions China could do is provide Iran with reparations while getting US tariff relief to allow US-Iran peace without direct US concessions. Opening SoH or buying uranium are all simple financial transactions. Iranian patience is also why SoH stays closed. GCC desalination hits would lead to quick regime/attitude change.
Its the US’s fuckup to fix.
I’m pretty sure the Yanks are fueling the crisis.
I fail to see why China should be compelled to help with the Straight. If it’s in their interest to do so, they will, but if there is a more price effective alternative for them, they’d take that one. The same goes for every nation.
never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake
The solution is for China, Europe, and Russia to get together and negotiate with Iran. Iran will trust this group. Iran would be willing to let China or Russia hold its enriched uranium.
Why would Russia have any interest in this? They’re making mad bank off this. It pretty much saved their whole war effort.
So is the US but Russia would support European concessions while the US wouldn’t.
Suppose that the Iranian regime collapses and a new government friendly to the US takes over. Then the US would control Iranian oil. If Russia doesn’t want to join, China could just join with Europe.
If the US controls Iranian oil, at worst things will go back to the old situation for Russia: Their oil is worth less, and they have to sell it through back channels.
As long as Iran keeps the strait blockaded, Russian oil is worth way more (like it is right now) and currently the US is allowing it to be traded out in the open.
Europe and China, on the other hand, may find common ground here since both are net importers of oil and gas AFAIK. Russia is a net exporter of both.
