The two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran appeared at risk of unraveling less than a day after it was announced.

Three parts of Iran’s 10-point ceasefire proposal have been violated, Ghalibaf said. The violations are Israel’s continued attacks on Lebanon, the entry of a drone into Iranian airspace, and the denial of the Islamic Republic’s right to enrich uranium, he said.

  • brucethemoose@lemmy.worldEnglish
    121·
    23 hours ago

    Uh oh.

    Also, I found some interesting trackers:

    https://www.hormuztracker.com/

    https://www.shiptraffic.net/2001/04/hormuz-strait-ship-traffic.html

    No ships going through yet. And one had a very interesting nugget of info on insurance:

    Insurance withdrawal makes transit commercially unviable independent of physical conditions. Even if the security situation improves tomorrow, insurers take weeks to reinstate coverage. Ships cannot sail without P&I cover — ports won’t accept them, banks won’t finance cargo, charterers won’t book them. Three weeks in, no insurer has shown willingness to reinstate. This is why the disruption will persist well beyond any resolution.

      • Matombo@feddit.orgEnglish
        2·
        12 hours ago

        Apparently Iran has a map of safe routes that they give out to ships paying their transit fee.

    • Knock_Knock_Lemmy_In@lemmy.worldEnglish
      31·
      12 hours ago

      This is bullshit. There is a combination of excess and premium that any insurer would accept.

      Or the USA could provide/pay the insurance. Trump wants the strait open, he can backstop the insurance.

    • DarkSpectrum@lemmy.worldEnglish
      131·
      20 hours ago

      add on top of that:

      • time for Iran to administrate passage
      • time for each boat to enter/exit under security
      • reduced production rates due to full tanks or damaged infrastructure
      • time for countries to raise sovereign capital (selling bonds, gold and currency reserves) to meet price increases

      estimates are a reduction of 15-25% of global supply and 3-5 years to recover IF the straight is opened immediately and stays open. You can’t print oil ppl. The price per barrel will need to be high enough to squash 15-25% of global demand. We could see $300-350+ per barrel.

      • wonderingwanderer@sopuli.xyzEnglish
        171·
        17 hours ago

        We need to see oil prices high enough to squash 95-100% of global demand.

        Humans can adapt. We have renewable energy. We’ve had 6 years since covid to build a more resilient, sustainable infrastructure. We didn’t. The world went right back to burning fossil fuels, and then some, and have only accelerated since.

        Maybe we need another global supply chain breakdown to force us to make up for lost time. Cause we needed to stop burning fossil fuels a decade ago.

        I bet we’ll start seeing a lot more electric cars on the road. Too bad so many manufacturers shut down their production!