Iranian officials urged young people to form human chains to protect power plants, as U.S. President Donald Trump warned that a “whole civilization will die tonight” if Tehran does not meet his latest deadline.
Theres every reason to think the Russians would consider a nuclear trigger-happy US an existential threat to them and launch a pre emptive attack. After all, the US (through Ukraine) launched attacks on Russia’s strategic bombers and Putins nuclear bunker which would have been considered suicidal during the Cold War
Yes Russia could launch a preemptive nuclear attack because Trump is a lunatic who kills and kidnaps leaders of other countries and sends drones (via Ukraine) to bomb Russian strategic sites
So Russia might think “kill them before they kill us” should Trump or Netanyahu use nukes against Iran.
MAD doesn’t work if one of the players is literally mad.
In response, the US nukes Russia. Not just a little bit either, they nuke all population sites.
No “decapitation” strike is possible from either side. Any attack by either side is met by the other striking back, and again not just a little bit - all population sites. That is what mutually assured destruction is.
And maybe more if you need:
if you think the US nukes Russia, then:
surprise, Russia nukes the US back.
Once again, no decapitation strike is possible from either side. A strike by the US is met by Russia striking back. That is what mutually assured destruction is.
MAD literally works if either side starts nuking the other, regardless of the reason why. This is the whole basis of MAD.
Ok I’m really gonna peace out. You really need to do some reading.
I’ve read Schelling’s Strategy of Conflict so I have done some reading on this. Once again you are assuming players are always rational which is a simplistic assumption. The game doesn’t work if one side doesn’t care about iterative rounds, chooses to signal erratic behaviour or doesn’t understand the implications of their actions.
A good example is Nixon’s “madman theory” during the Vietnam conflict.
Trump is erratic and can’t be assumed to act rationally , so his use of a nuclear weapon would massively increase the chance that Russia would use one in response on the basis that the US is willing to kill the leaders of other countries in a sneak attack.
MAD is not set in stone and can break down in certain circumstances.
Theres every reason to think the Russians would consider a nuclear trigger-happy US an existential threat to them and launch a pre emptive attack. After all, the US (through Ukraine) launched attacks on Russia’s strategic bombers and Putins nuclear bunker which would have been considered suicidal during the Cold War
If a nuclear weapon is used all bets are off.
Preemptive attacks don’t work when they will nuke you back. This is the principle behind Mutually Assured Destruction.
MAD assumes the other side is rational. Trump is a lunatic.
First you said Russia, not the US, would do a preemptive nuclear attack. So this isn’t about Trump, it’s about Putin.
Second, Russia wouldn’t do it because of MAD. That’s the whole concept of MAD.
You’re making no sense, so I think I’m gonna peace out.
Yes Russia could launch a preemptive nuclear attack because Trump is a lunatic who kills and kidnaps leaders of other countries and sends drones (via Ukraine) to bomb Russian strategic sites
So Russia might think “kill them before they kill us” should Trump or Netanyahu use nukes against Iran.
MAD doesn’t work if one of the players is literally mad.
Got it now?
Play this out:
Russia nukes the US.
In response, the US nukes Russia. Not just a little bit either, they nuke all population sites.
No “decapitation” strike is possible from either side. Any attack by either side is met by the other striking back, and again not just a little bit - all population sites. That is what mutually assured destruction is.
And maybe more if you need:
if you think the US nukes Russia, then:
surprise, Russia nukes the US back.
Once again, no decapitation strike is possible from either side. A strike by the US is met by Russia striking back. That is what mutually assured destruction is.
MAD literally works if either side starts nuking the other, regardless of the reason why. This is the whole basis of MAD.
Ok I’m really gonna peace out. You really need to do some reading.
I’ve read Schelling’s Strategy of Conflict so I have done some reading on this. Once again you are assuming players are always rational which is a simplistic assumption. The game doesn’t work if one side doesn’t care about iterative rounds, chooses to signal erratic behaviour or doesn’t understand the implications of their actions.
A good example is Nixon’s “madman theory” during the Vietnam conflict.
Trump is erratic and can’t be assumed to act rationally , so his use of a nuclear weapon would massively increase the chance that Russia would use one in response on the basis that the US is willing to kill the leaders of other countries in a sneak attack.
MAD is not set in stone and can break down in certain circumstances.