Iranian officials urged young people to form human chains to protect power plants, as U.S. President Donald Trump warned that a “whole civilization will die tonight” if Tehran does not meet his latest deadline.
I’m with you on Russia but I don’t think the PLA would consider nuking Taiwan. They ideologically consider everyone on the island to be Chinese and they also certainly don’t want to blow it to ashes just to have to rebuild it from scratch.
IMO the wind is blowing toward a political reunification where China takes it without a shot. The opposition party is already pushing that and the US is not a stable or reliable enough ally at this point for them credibly rely on if China actually invades.
Not on the island but if the US now starts using tactical nukes in Iran, the nuclear power China would seriously consider its own tactical nuclear use cases - after all what’s the value in being a nuclear power if it’s a forgone conclusion that you won’t use them. Doubly so should the US prove it’s willingness to use tactical nukes now, as China would then need to expect that nukes might be used against them too, should it come to a military exchange with the US over Taiwan. It’s mutually assured destruction, but instead of destroying cities with ICBMs you sink each other’s aircraft carriers with smaller nukes.
Regarding Taiwan itself, I think there would be valid use cases, especially for the massive EMPs given off by nukes detonated in the atmosphere. They can disable an army of drones and most civilian communication systems all at once, which seems like a very solid first strike move if you don’t want to destroy the country but cause enough disruption to allow an invasion force to land.
I’m not a military strategist though, so no guarantees on any of this.
As I said, I completely agree regarding the island itself. I see that even the atmospheric use might be unrealistic there.
But if the US establishes that the use of tactical nukes is acceptable, I doubt they’d have the same qualms when it comes to ships or drones of the US Navy.
I’m with you on Russia but I don’t think the PLA would consider nuking Taiwan. They ideologically consider everyone on the island to be Chinese and they also certainly don’t want to blow it to ashes just to have to rebuild it from scratch.
IMO the wind is blowing toward a political reunification where China takes it without a shot. The opposition party is already pushing that and the US is not a stable or reliable enough ally at this point for them credibly rely on if China actually invades.
Not on the island but if the US now starts using tactical nukes in Iran, the nuclear power China would seriously consider its own tactical nuclear use cases - after all what’s the value in being a nuclear power if it’s a forgone conclusion that you won’t use them. Doubly so should the US prove it’s willingness to use tactical nukes now, as China would then need to expect that nukes might be used against them too, should it come to a military exchange with the US over Taiwan. It’s mutually assured destruction, but instead of destroying cities with ICBMs you sink each other’s aircraft carriers with smaller nukes.
Regarding Taiwan itself, I think there would be valid use cases, especially for the massive EMPs given off by nukes detonated in the atmosphere. They can disable an army of drones and most civilian communication systems all at once, which seems like a very solid first strike move if you don’t want to destroy the country but cause enough disruption to allow an invasion force to land.
I’m not a military strategist though, so no guarantees on any of this.
They consider Taiwan part of China. They would see nuking Taiwan as nuking their own left hand. Very unlikely.
As I said, I completely agree regarding the island itself. I see that even the atmospheric use might be unrealistic there.
But if the US establishes that the use of tactical nukes is acceptable, I doubt they’d have the same qualms when it comes to ships or drones of the US Navy.