For oil, I’d guess so. With COVID-19, there was a substantial reduction.
Though a wrinkle is that it’s also disrupting LNG shipments. Coal power generation is a substitute good for natural gas power generation. One way that countries in Europe offset reduced natural gas availability when Russia cut supply was to increase (more-carbon-intensive) coal use, and I assume that the same thing will happen again now, so that might cause emissions from electrical power generation to rise, even if supply of a fossil fuel falls.
I expect that as we see what happens on the policy front and with consumer choice in response, that there will be people going off and modeling the impact.
For oil, I’d guess so. With COVID-19, there was a substantial reduction.
Though a wrinkle is that it’s also disrupting LNG shipments. Coal power generation is a substitute good for natural gas power generation. One way that countries in Europe offset reduced natural gas availability when Russia cut supply was to increase (more-carbon-intensive) coal use, and I assume that the same thing will happen again now, so that might cause emissions from electrical power generation to rise, even if supply of a fossil fuel falls.
I expect that as we see what happens on the policy front and with consumer choice in response, that there will be people going off and modeling the impact.