Trump is now caught in the oldest trap of modern warfare – believing a swift, surgical military operation will yield quick, enduring political results. The Soviets did it in Afghanistan; the US in Iraq in 2003; Putin did it in Ukraine, and is still fighting. Whatever force a military fails or succeeds in applying at the start, the people it is attacking have greater commitment to defending their lands and homes.
The White House may have rushed into this, seizing the opportunity for a decapitation strike, provided by Israeli intelligence. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has very different objectives regionally, and a long US involvement against Tehran suits his desire for an Iran in rolling collapse that is no longer a threat. But the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28 has caused as many problems as it has solved.
China already saw this coming, that’s why they pushed so hard on solar and battery tech. Last year they dropped in 250GW of solar, and they’ll probably do more this year. It’s not there yet, but they’re not as worried about this as you might think. It’s a problem, but not a crippling emergency.
Europe on the other hand doesn’t have good options. Regardless of what they could do, what they don’t have now is the infrastructure to do it. And their biggest problem to clear out the Strait isn’t Iran, it’s Trump. European prosecutors are taking banking records from European banks about the Epstein files. While they can’t prosecute Trump directly in any way, they can hand over anything they want to congress, or the public. In short, they are a threat to Trump, and he knows it, and he will attack anyone who threatens him, or Putin.