Tesla’s domestic sales in China collapsed 45% year-over-year in January, falling to just 18,485 units — the automaker’s lowest monthly retail figure in the country since November 2022. The data, released today by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), paints a grim picture of Tesla’s demand in the world’s largest EV market.
The figure represents an 80% plunge from December’s record-high 93,843 domestic deliveries. While seasonal declines between December and January are normal in China, a 45% year-over-year drop is not.
Any idea if this is within expected ranges or is there something breaking down. I know that there has been speculation that the way the industry was operating wasn’t sustainable, but is this a natural/maintainable shift or something else?
I recall the general observation that a lot of Chinese EV companies were being built up, quickly building production capacities that, taken together, greatly exceed demand, each company hoping to be among the few that eventually survive. So that what we’re now seeing would be this show down
Yes, in a nutshell, this is what we have been observing over the recent years. Many Chinese carmakers have gone bankrupt or halted production over the years, and the remaining are struggling with fierce price wars in China’s domestic market.
For 2026 the outlook is not too positive. Cui Dongshu, the Secretary General of the Chinese Passenger Car Association (CPCA), predicted “zero growth or slightly positive growth” for 2026, according to Chinese state media. Based on CPCA data, we’ll likely see China’s auto market in 2026 on track for the worst year since 2020 when the economy was disrupted by the pandemic.
A China Automobile Dealers Association survey showed that 41% of surveyed dealers expected lower sales targets from automakers in 2026 and 18.1% of those surveyed forecast a drop of more than 10%, Reuters reported.
Analysts -in China and abroad- largely agree that the major factor in China is low consumer confidence due to a weak economy. They also say that China’s car manufacturers become increasingly dependent on export markets. We will see how the EU and other markets will respond as the Chinese party-state subsidizes the industry and thus its overproduction heavily.
@jacksilver@lemmy.world
Yeah, that’s what I was wondering.