State media said on Saturday that the army took over the northern city of Tabqa and its adjacent dam, as well as the major Freedom dam, formerly known as the Baath, west of the Syrian city of Raqaa. It came despite US calls to halt the advance.
State media said on Saturday that the army took over the northern city of Tabqa and its adjacent dam, as well as the major Freedom dam, formerly known as the Baath, west of the Syrian city of Raqaa. It came despite US calls to halt the advance.
What passed according to the article: Syrian government troops were supposed to take a batch of land on the western side of Euphrates, but launched a larger offensive, forced Kurdish troops to retreat and crossed the river at two points at major dams.
Personal opinion: the president’s decree, while it looked friendly to Kurds, was most likely a simple feint, and being a decree (not a law, elections haven’t been held and there is no new parliament) can be taken back and isn’t worth the paper it’s written on.
For some reason I’m not fully aware of, January is the typical time of wars and offensive operations starting in Syria. At this time, the Syrian central government cannot be trusted for more than 60 seconds. Sadly, the SDF is not what it used to be, and has likewise worn down its trust among people. It is not a very effective fighting force.
Against the much larger Syrian army, Kurds are going to lose, unless they retake their riverside at the dams + find a channel for obtaining drones and antidrone tech (getting more artillery is likely an unattainable goal for them). At this point, I don’t think they can retake those points or obtain sufficient technology.
They likely know they’re in danger, as they proceeded with blowing up some bridges across the Euphrates. The problem is: this still leaves them holding some Arab-majority areas which the Syrian governement definitely wants.
French and US diplomats and military are trying to calm down the conflict without participating in it.
Free Kurdistan!
I wish it weren’t so, but you’re hitting all sorts of nails on the heads. Long live Rojava. Down with jihadis, and so long as the so-called Syrian army is headed by a jihadist, down with them.
P.S.
Allegedly (but I trust that BBC checks its sources well) there is a cease-fire agreement. It looks extremely unfavourable to the Kurds, and promises to al-Sharaa that he’ll get almost everything.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gwk37ewvwo
However, when I checked out what’s being written on “Kurdish Front News” (telegram channel, not news outlet, content warning, some videos depict death and violence, source ) I found a contradicting claim:
However, al-Sharaa is pictured presenting a document with signatures (which I can’t verify) so I sort of expect that the ceasefire was signed by both sides, and a statement by the AANES / SDF will follow.
I think it will be confirmed in the following days that there has been heavy fighting for Raqqa (north / east of Euphrates, 500 000 inhabitants by the last count, largest city in previously Kurdish-held area, with an Arab majority population) between SDF and HTS (government troops backed by militias of some Arab tribes). According to ABC News, SDF has lost the town to Syrian government. source This would make it clear that the river can’t work as a borderline between forces any more.
In short, it looks bad.
It could be that the autonomy of North-East Syria is over really soon, SDF will try to save its people by integrating with the Syrian army, and those who don’t want that will hide their weapons and go underground to wait. If the Syrian central government proves central enough and not democratic enough (currently it’s an oligarchy of former terrorists, now called government officials)… I predict that soon enough, quite numerous Syrian Kurds will want to leave their homeland.