Israeli media reports and a hawkish US lawmaker signalled that Iran might be next on US President Donald Trump’s list of interventions following the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
The Jerusalem Post reported on Monday that the US is weighing “some intervention” in Iran’s protests.
The article also said how Israel believes that the US’s abduction of Maduro over the weekend may indicate a new US risk threshold for intervention in the Islamic Republic of Iran.
The report follows an appearance by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham on Fox News in which he sported a “Make Iran Great Again” baseball hat, saying, “I pray and hope 2026 will be the year that we make Iran great again.”
The brazen US intervention in South America came just after Trump on Friday warned Iran that the US could intervene to “rescue” Iranians if they continue to be met with a harsh response from their government amid protests there.
I see two possibilities:
if the situation has become such that protesters are having armed exchanges with the regime, and losing them due to lacking control over airspace, lacking good enough communications or lacking armor - then foreign intervention may tilt the balance in their favour [this is currently not the case, to my understanding]
however, if they mostly aren’t involved in armed struggle, but still trying to do mass movement / demonstrations / riots, then foreign attack offers a convenient excuse to declare martial law and use any flavour of weapon to kill them [this could be the case, to my understanding]
This presents a difficult situation: threatening the Iranian regime with foreign intervention to have it not shoot live ammo at the protesters, may help their cause. Unless it’s already being shot, which I have a strong suspicion is happening.
However, moving to assist them may end up actually hurting them - and I’m not analyst enough to give conditions or a probability.
I don’t think the ayatollah or his generals are sleeping in their ordinary bunkers. They’re probably extra careful at this time and have already arranged the downward delegation of authority in case of attack.
Iran is massively holding back because of the Western propaganda storm to justify intervention already. They could have easily sent in the army to mow them all down.
The Iranian government is already shooting live ammunition at its people, just like they did during the last round of major protests. They’ve already killed hundreds on the past couple days, under the fog of an internet blackout. Protestors are asking for international help.
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2026/jan/10/iran-protesters-tell-of-brutal-police-response-deaths-and-forced-confessions
The rioters have AKs and are shooting at cops and buildings. They are also setting mosques buildings ablaze. It is hardly a “protest”.
Also “calling for international help” can this bad attempt at a color revolution be any more obvious?
Any “protection” the current regime is liable to offer the protesters is going to be more akin to mafia “protection” than the traditional definition of the term.
Look, I don’t trust the US or Israeli governments either, but I really feel for the Iranian protesters and many of them are already mourning. The faster this regime falls, the better.