Initially Valve's Steam Hardware & Software Survey for December 2025 showed Linux at 3.19%, but they appear to have amended it with a nice boost for Linux.
I think most users, given enough motivation, could definitely figure out how to install a distro from scratch especially for something like Ubuntu or Mint.
You’re much more optimistic than I am. Maybe I’ve spent too much time with users who are usually scared of clicking on an unknown button, because after all, who knows what could happen if they click on “ok”?
I’ve spent shitloads of time with users (did stints at repair shops, MSP, desktop support, and analyst stuff), but even the most ignorant, careless user could probably get through installing Linux if they really wanted to.
It becomes a matter of which is scarier: Microsoft or having to try a new thing? The shittier windows gets, the more people will be pushed to jump ship, possibly to Linux.
Realistically what’ll happen is these users will start hunting for alternatives. If Linux gains enough enthusiast marketshare, more small local IT companies will feel comfortable just handing folks an old PC loaded with Linux, more computer shops will directly support Linux and this will chip away at the norm. Eventually if such a trend continues for long enough folks will start asking for it “yeah my last computer had oombootoo on it instead of Microsoft. Do they still make that? Can you get me one of them oombootoo computers?”
Most users don’t know how to enter a url any other way than to search for the site name and click on the most likely result.
I don’t see those people installing Linux (or anything else, for that matter) any time soon.
I think most users, given enough motivation, could definitely figure out how to install a distro from scratch especially for something like Ubuntu or Mint.
You’re much more optimistic than I am. Maybe I’ve spent too much time with users who are usually scared of clicking on an unknown button, because after all, who knows what could happen if they click on “ok”?
I’ve spent shitloads of time with users (did stints at repair shops, MSP, desktop support, and analyst stuff), but even the most ignorant, careless user could probably get through installing Linux if they really wanted to.
But that kind of user typically won’t want to because it’s much too scary.
Of course it’s trivial to install Linux, you just have to click “next” five times or so.
It becomes a matter of which is scarier: Microsoft or having to try a new thing? The shittier windows gets, the more people will be pushed to jump ship, possibly to Linux.
Realistically what’ll happen is these users will start hunting for alternatives. If Linux gains enough enthusiast marketshare, more small local IT companies will feel comfortable just handing folks an old PC loaded with Linux, more computer shops will directly support Linux and this will chip away at the norm. Eventually if such a trend continues for long enough folks will start asking for it “yeah my last computer had oombootoo on it instead of Microsoft. Do they still make that? Can you get me one of them oombootoo computers?”