Any move to “wipe the slate clean” for Russia in a peace deal would be “a historic mistake of huge proportions,” the EU justice commissioner tells POLITICO.
Donald Trump’s drive to secure peace in Ukraine must not let Vladimir Putin off the hook for war crimes committed by Russian forces, a top EU official has warned, effectively setting a new red line for a deal.
In an interview with POLITICO, Michael McGrath, the European commissioner for justice and democracy, said negotiators must ensure the push for a ceasefire does not result in Russia escaping prosecution.
His comments reflect concerns widely held in European capitals that the original American blueprint for a deal included the promise of a “full amnesty for actions committed during the war,” alongside plans to reintegrate Russia into the world economy.
While I like the sentiment, unless the EU is interested in a WWII style total war and invasion of Russia, Putin is never going to be held to account for the invasion of Ukraine.
The Russian government (Read: Putin and his cronies) are not going to agree to hand Putin over to The Hague. Even if the current war ends on favorable terms for Ukraine, that is never going to look anything like the German or Japanese surrenders. At best, this war ends with Russian military exhaustion and withdrawal. More like the end of Soviet involvement in Afghanistan. There will be no push to Moscow, no mass bombing of Russian factories or cities. Just Russian soldiers packing up and going home, leaving death and devastation behind for the survivors of their invasion to deal with.
Any negotiated peace is going to look pretty similar. It will stop the death sooner at the cost of giving Russia something it’s willing to accept. That’s the way negotiations work. If you want to force the other side to accept your terms, without any compromise, that’s what war is for. Since it seems neither the EU nor the US are willing to engage in a direct confrontation with Russia, then the only choice to end this war early is compromise. And Putin facing accountability is almost certainly not going to be on the table.
There is no expectation that Putin will ever stand trial for his crimes. That’s not the point. The point is that he should not be allowed to have those crimes swept under the rug. Putin should be a global pariah, like Netanyahu; a man who has to fear setting foot outside his own country because of the very real danger that he could be arrested.
Just because we can’t punish him, doesn’t mean we have to forgive him.
There is another option, which is Putin is couped out of office. The new Russian government wants to get rid of Putin and sending him to the Hague would mean he is locked up for life and all the problems Russia has can be blamed on him. It also creates some good will with the Ukrainians for peace negotiations. The Wagner revolt shows that this is certainly possible.